Worldwide Baby Food Market Expected to Grow at a CAGR of +1.8% by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Food Preparations For Infants - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Driven by rising demand for baby food worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.2 million tons by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $72.8 billion (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for baby food worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $72.8B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Food Preparations For Infants

In 2023, global baby food consumption dropped to 7.2M tons, stabilizing at 2022. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 3.3%. Global consumption peaked at 7.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global baby food market size reduced to $56B in 2023, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 9.3%. Global consumption peaked at $58.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (1.2M tons), the United States (832K tons) and India (452K tons), together accounting for 35% of global consumption. Ireland, Japan, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, Nigeria and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +29.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($21.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($6.7B). It was followed by Japan.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +5.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+1.8% per year) and Japan (-4.0% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of baby food per capita consumption was registered in Ireland (49 kg per person), followed by the United States (2.5 kg per person), Japan (1.7 kg per person) and Turkey (1.4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of baby food was estimated at 0.9 kg per person.

In Ireland, baby food per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +27.9% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the United States (-0.5% per year) and Japan (-4.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Food Preparations For Infants

In 2023, global production of food preparations for infants contracted slightly to 7.1M tons, shrinking by -1.6% compared with 2022. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 2.6%. Global production peaked at 7.5M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, baby food production declined modestly to $54.3B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 15%. Global production peaked at $55.1B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (1M tons), the United States (820K tons) and India (452K tons), with a combined 32% share of global production. Ireland, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +10.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

Imports

World Imports of Food Preparations For Infants

In 2023, purchases abroad of food preparations for infants decreased by -4.1% to 1.2M tons, falling for the fourth consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 1.7M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, baby food imports expanded to $11.1B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 13% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $12.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, China (238K tons), distantly followed by Malaysia (79K tons) represented the major importers of food preparations for infants, together comprising 25% of total imports. Italy (45K tons), Poland (40K tons), the United States (40K tons), France (39K tons), Vietnam (38K tons), the UK (35K tons), the Netherlands (28K tons), Germany (28K tons), Russia (28K tons), Canada (26K tons) and Saudi Arabia (21K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to baby food imports into China stood at +6.9%. At the same time, the United States (+37.5%), Poland (+14.3%) and the Netherlands (+6.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United States emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +37.5% from 2013-2023. Malaysia, Canada, Vietnam and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France (-1.2%), Germany (-2.8%), Saudi Arabia (-3.6%), Russia (-4.4%) and the UK (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+8.6 p.p.), the United States (+3.1 p.p.) and Poland (+2.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2023, the share of the UK (-5.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.3B) constitutes the largest market for imported food preparations for infants worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($341M), with a 3.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 2.9% share.

In China, baby food imports increased at an average annual rate of +11.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+47.3% per year) and Vietnam (+1.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average baby food import price amounted to $8,898 per ton, picking up by 5.9% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 21%. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($18,052 per ton), while Italy ($2,071 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Food Preparations For Infants

Global baby food exports contracted to 1.1M tons in 2023, reducing by -8.8% against the previous year. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.4M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, baby food exports expanded to $10.6B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 15%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $11B. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

The Netherlands (169K tons) and France (165K tons) represented roughly 29% of total exports in 2023. Germany (105K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Ireland (90K tons), New Zealand (80K tons), Poland (57K tons) and Spain (57K tons). All these countries together took approx. 34% share of total exports. The following exporters - Rwanda (36K tons), Switzerland (34K tons), the United States (28K tons), Thailand (23K tons), Belgium (22K tons) and Denmark (22K tons) - together made up 14% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Rwanda (with a CAGR of +52.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($2.5B) remains the largest baby food supplier worldwide, comprising 23% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by France ($1.2B), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 10% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Netherlands totaled +3.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+3.3% per year) and Germany (+8.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average baby food export price amounted to $9,249 per ton, surging by 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($14,692 per ton), while Rwanda ($1,375 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+8.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform