Barley Market Expected to Grow with +1.2% CAGR in Volume over the Next Seven Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Barley - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The global barley market is projected to experience growth in consumption and production over the next seven years. Forecasts indicate an increase in market volume and value by 2030. Key trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports are detailed, providing insights into the market landscape and key players.

Market Forecast

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for barley worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 165M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $56.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

Consumption

In 2023, consumption of barley increased by 0.7% to 152M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 157M tons. From 2020 to 2023, the growth of the global consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The global barley market revenue amounted to $44.6B in 2023, growing by 5.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $46.5B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Russia (18M tons), China (13M tons) and Spain (11M tons), together accounting for 28% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($4.3B), China ($4.2B) and Spain ($3.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together accounting for 27% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +12.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of barley per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (511 kg per person), followed by Spain (242 kg per person), Australia (235 kg per person) and Canada (155 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of barley was estimated at 19 kg per person.

In Denmark, barley per capita consumption shrank by an average annual rate of -1.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+1.0% per year) and Australia (+8.8% per year).

Production

Production

In 2023, global production of barley contracted modestly to 150M tons, declining by -3.2% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 156M tons. From 2020 to 2023, global production growth remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, barley production rose modestly to $45.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 19%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $49.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Russia (21M tons), Australia (15M tons) and France (11M tons), together comprising 31% of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Australia (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2023, the global average yield of barley reduced to 3.1 tons per ha, falling by -5.8% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the yield increased by 13%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 3.3 tons per ha, and then reduced in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2023, approx. 48M ha of barley were harvested worldwide; increasing by 2.7% on 2022 figures. Overall, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to barley production attained the peak figure at 52M ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

Imports

In 2023, approx. 41M tons of barley were imported worldwide; surging by 39% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 43M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, barley imports soared to $12.5B in 2023. In general, total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +69.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China represented the key importer of barley in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 11M tons, which was approx. 28% of total imports in 2023. Spain (3.4M tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with an 8.3% share, followed by Saudi Arabia (6.6%) and the Netherlands (6.2%). The following importers - Belgium (1.6M tons), Germany (1.6M tons), Iran (1.5M tons), Turkey (1.5M tons), Japan (1.2M tons), Jordan (1.1M tons), Tunisia (0.9M tons), Italy (0.7M tons) and Thailand (0.7M tons) - together made up 26% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +17.1% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Thailand (+51.2%), Spain (+26.7%), Turkey (+19.2%), Iran (+8.0%), Germany (+3.4%), the Netherlands (+2.5%) and Jordan (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Thailand emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +51.2% from 2013-2023. Tunisia, Italy and Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.0%) and Saudi Arabia (-12.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+20 p.p.), Spain (+7.3 p.p.), Turkey (+2.8 p.p.) and Thailand (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2023, the share of Belgium (-1.6 p.p.) and Saudi Arabia (-28.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.8B) constitutes the largest market for imported barley worldwide, comprising 30% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Spain ($938M), with a 7.5% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 5.9% share.

In China, barley imports expanded at an average annual rate of +16.8% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+25.3% per year) and the Netherlands (+3.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average barley import price amounted to $307 per ton, dropping by -9.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $338 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Belgium ($346 per ton) and Japan ($333 per ton), while Iran ($263 per ton) and Saudi Arabia ($271 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Exports

In 2023, approx. 39M tons of barley were exported worldwide; rising by 16% compared with 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 43M tons. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, barley exports stood at $10.9B in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +58.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Australia (8.3M tons) and France (6.8M tons) represented the largest exporters of barleyin the world, together making up 39% of total exports. Germany (3.6M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Argentina (2.8M tons), Canada (2.4M tons), Romania (2.3M tons), Russia (2.3M tons) and Ukraine (2.2M tons). All these countries together took approx. 40% share of total exports. The following exporters - Hungary (1,128K tons), Denmark (899K tons), Kazakhstan (806K tons) and the UK (742K tons) - together made up 9.3% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest barley supplying countries worldwide were Australia ($2.3B), France ($2.1B) and Germany ($952M), together accounting for 49% of global exports. Argentina, Canada, Russia, Romania, Ukraine, Denmark, the UK, Hungary and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

Kazakhstan, with a CAGR of +12.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average barley export price amounted to $282 per ton, falling by -9.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 28%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $312 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($374 per ton), while Ukraine ($168 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+3.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform