Acyclic Hydrocarbons Market

The article provides detailed insights into the global market for acyclic hydrocarbons, highlighting trends from 2012 to 2022 and forecasts for 2022 to 2030. It covers consumption, production, import, export, and price fluctuations. Key findings include the expected CAGR of +1.3% in consumption and +3.5% in value from 2022 to 2030, with China leading in both consumption and imports. Saturated acyclic hydrocarbons are the most imported type, while the United States is the largest exporter. Price trends show fluctuations over the years, with significant growth recorded in 2021.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for acyclic hydrocarbons worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 281M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $290.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2022, consumption of acyclic hydrocarbons decreased by -1.7% to 254M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 3.5%. Global consumption peaked at 273M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global acyclic hydrocarbons market value reduced slightly to $219.7B in 2022, which is down by -2.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a pronounced decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6%. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $268.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Mexico (61M tons), China (38M tons) and Japan (21M tons), with a combined 47% share of global consumption. South Korea, the United States, Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia, India, the UK, Germany, Turkey and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +12.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($53.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($18.8B). It was followed by Mexico.

In China, the acyclic hydrocarbons market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Japan (-4.3% per year) and Mexico (-8.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of acyclic hydrocarbons per capita consumption in 2022 were Mexico (462 kg per person), Belgium (365 kg per person) and South Korea (346 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2022, production of acyclic hydrocarbons decreased by -1.9% to 255M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 273M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, acyclic hydrocarbons production reduced to $200.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production saw a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $281.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Mexico (59M tons), China (31M tons) and the United States (23M tons), with a combined 44% share of global production. Japan, South Korea, Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia, the UK, Germany, Turkey and India lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Acyclic Hydrocarbons

For the ninth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in overseas purchases of acyclic hydrocarbons, which increased by 2.1% to 32M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +54.7% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 9.8%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, acyclic hydrocarbons imports expanded remarkably to $31.1B in 2022. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 43%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the largest importing country with an import of around 8M tons, which resulted at 25% of total imports. Belgium (3M tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Canada (2M tons), India (1.9M tons), the United States (1.7M tons) and Mexico (1.6M tons). All these countries together held near 32% share of total imports. The following importers - Germany (1,379K tons), Indonesia (1,121K tons), the Netherlands (1,022K tons), France (940K tons), the UK (874K tons), Sweden (866K tons) and Norway (783K tons) - together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to acyclic hydrocarbons imports into China stood at +7.0%. At the same time, Norway (+26.4%), India (+26.0%), Canada (+20.9%), the UK (+16.2%), Mexico (+15.6%), Indonesia (+3.5%), Sweden (+2.7%) and France (+2.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Norway emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.4% from 2012-2022. The United States, Belgium and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-3.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+5.5 p.p.), India (+5.1 p.p.), Canada (+4.8 p.p.), Mexico (+3.2 p.p.), Norway (+2.1 p.p.) and the UK (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the Netherlands, the United States, Belgium and Germany saw its share reduced by -2.2%, -2.3%, -4.4% and -4.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($7.1B), Belgium ($4B) and the United States ($2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 42% share of global imports. Germany, the Netherlands, India, France, Indonesia, Canada, Sweden, the UK, Mexico and Norway lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Norway, with a CAGR of +22.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Saturated acyclic hydrocarbons represented the main type of acyclic hydrocarbons in the world, with the volume of imports recording 14M tons, which was approx. 43% of total imports in 2022. Ethylene (7.4M tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 23% share, followed by propene (propylene) (20%), buta-1,3-diene and isoprene (6.2%) and unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons (5.6%). Butene (butylene) and isomers thereof (618K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by saturated acyclic hydrocarbons (with a CAGR of +15.5%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, ethylene ($8.7B), saturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($8.3B) and propene (propylene) ($7.6B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 79% of global imports.

In terms of the main imported products, saturated acyclic hydrocarbons, with a CAGR of +9.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average acyclic hydrocarbons import price amounted to $978 per ton, growing by 8.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a noticeable shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $1,445 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($1,800 per ton), while the price for saturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($606 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons (+0.3%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average acyclic hydrocarbons import price amounted to $978 per ton, growing by 8.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a pronounced slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 38% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $1,445 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,399 per ton), while Mexico ($357 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+0.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2022, the amount of acyclic hydrocarbons exported worldwide contracted slightly to 32M tons, almost unchanged from 2021 figures. Over the period under review, total exports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +15.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 32M tons, leveling off in the following year.

In value terms, acyclic hydrocarbons exports expanded sharply to $29.4B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 52% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the major exporting country with an export of about 14M tons, which recorded 43% of total exports. South Korea (3.6M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (2.3M tons). All these countries together held approx. 18% share of total exports. Canada (1,237K tons), Belgium (1,049K tons), Japan (996K tons), Germany (970K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (862K tons), Malaysia (556K tons), Singapore (549K tons) and Russia (535K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the acyclic hydrocarbons exports, with a CAGR of +24.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Malaysia (+12.0%), Singapore (+3.5%), Belgium (+3.1%), South Korea (+2.9%) and Canada (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Taiwan (Chinese) and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.8%), Japan (-4.0%) and Russia (-8.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States increased by +36 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($7.9B) remains the largest acyclic hydrocarbons supplier worldwide, comprising 27% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($3.7B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States amounted to +16.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (-0.3% per year) and the Netherlands (-2.6% per year).

Exports By Type

Saturated acyclic hydrocarbons represented the major type of acyclic hydrocarbons in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 13M tons, which was approx. 41% of total exports in 2022. Ethylene (7.2M tons) held a 22% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by propene (propylene) (21%), buta-1,3-diene and isoprene (7.1%) and unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons (6.2%). Butene (butylene) and isomers thereof (862K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exported products, was attained by saturated acyclic hydrocarbons (with a CAGR of +17.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, ethylene ($7.9B), propene (propylene) ($7.5B) and saturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($6.9B) were the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 76% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exported products, saturated acyclic hydrocarbons, with a CAGR of +9.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average acyclic hydrocarbons export price amounted to $909 per ton, growing by 8.4% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 31% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,348 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was unsaturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($1,641 per ton), while the average price for exports of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons ($516 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by butene and isomers thereof (+2.1%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average acyclic hydrocarbons export price amounted to $909 per ton, growing by 8.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a noticeable setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 31% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,348 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($1,542 per ton), while the United States ($568 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (-0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform