Beef Market

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the global beef market from 2022 to 2030, with forecasts indicating an upward consumption trend. Key findings include the market volume expected to reach 82M tons by 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.0%. The market value is projected to reach $533.4B by 2030. Detailed insights on major consuming countries such as the United States, China, and Brazil, as well as leading exporters like Brazil and the United States. The analysis also covers trends in beef types, average prices, and growth rates in production and exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for beef (cattle meat) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 82M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $533.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Beef (Cattle Meat)

Global beef consumption stood at 75M tons in 2022, remaining stable against the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 2.6% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global beef market value fell modestly to $421.3B in 2022, shrinking by -3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $434.4B, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (13M tons), China (11M tons) and Brazil (8.4M tons), together accounting for 42% of global consumption. India, Argentina, Pakistan, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beef markets worldwide were the United States ($93.8B), China ($67B) and Brazil ($37.2B), with a combined 47% share of the global market. Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Russia and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Pakistan, with a CAGR of +5.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of beef per capita consumption in 2022 were Argentina (54 kg per person), Brazil (39 kg per person) and the United States (38 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Beef (Cattle Meat)

In 2022, global production of beef (cattle meat) rose modestly to 76M tons, picking up by 1.8% against the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 2.6%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, beef production shrank to $442.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $470.1B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (13M tons), Brazil (10M tons) and China (7.8M tons), with a combined 41% share of global production. India, Argentina, Pakistan, Mexico, Australia, Russia, Turkey, Canada and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of beef (cattle meat) totaled 227 kg per head, approximately reflecting the year before. Over the period under review, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 1.2%. The global yield peaked at 228 kg per head in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Producing Animals

The global number of animals slaughtered for beef production totaled 335M heads in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against the year before. In general, the number of producing animals continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 2.2%. The global producing animals peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports

World Imports of Beef (Cattle Meat)

In 2022, the amount of beef (cattle meat) imported worldwide was estimated at 10M tons, picking up by 1.8% on the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 7.9% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, beef imports rose markedly to $67.1B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +64.5% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China was the largest importer of beef (cattle meat) in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 2.7M tons, which was near 26% of total imports in 2022. The United States (1,062K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Japan (560K tons) and South Korea (473K tons). All these countries together held approx. 20% share of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (381K tons), Italy (356K tons), Germany (342K tons), France (290K tons), Chile (261K tons), the UK (234K tons), Indonesia (226K tons), Malaysia (209K tons) and Vietnam (180K tons) - together made up 24% of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the beef (cattle meat) imports, with a CAGR of +45.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Indonesia (+21.0%), Chile (+9.7%), South Korea (+6.0%), Malaysia (+5.4%) and the United States (+4.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany, Japan, the UK, France and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-1.2%) and Vietnam (-6.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China and Indonesia increased by +25 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($17.8B) constitutes the largest market for imported beef (cattle meat) worldwide, comprising 26% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($7.7B), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 6.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +52.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+8.2% per year) and South Korea (+12.8% per year).

Imports By Type

Frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat was the key type of beef (cattle meat) in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 5.8M tons, which was approx. 56% of total imports in 2022. Fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat (2.4M tons) took a 23% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (8.3%), frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (7%) and fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat (5%).

Imports of frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (+11.4%) and fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.4% from 2012-2022. Fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat (-1.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat (+4.2 p.p.) and frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (+3.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat and fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat saw its share reduced by -2.8% and -4.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat ($35.1B), fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat ($20.8B) and fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat ($5.2B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 91% of global imports. Frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat, fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat and frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 8.9%.

Frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat, with a CAGR of +14.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average beef import price stood at $6,511 per ton in 2022, surging by 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat ($8,741 per ton), while the price for frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat ($4,605 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat (+3.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average beef import price stood at $6,511 per ton in 2022, growing by 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($8,880 per ton), while Malaysia ($3,528 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Beef (Cattle Meat)

Global beef exports reached 11M tons in 2022, surging by 4.2% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 13%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, beef exports rose sharply to $68.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +66.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 20%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (2M tons), distantly followed by the United States (1,148K tons), India (1,064K tons), Australia (931K tons) and Argentina (637K tons) represented the major exporters of beef (cattle meat), together making up 53% of total exports. The following exporters - New Zealand (479K tons), the Netherlands (462K tons), Canada (430K tons), Ireland (398K tons), Uruguay (381K tons), Poland (362K tons), Paraguay (338K tons) and Mexico (295K tons) - together made up 29% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +18.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beef supplying countries worldwide were Brazil ($11.8B), the United States ($10.2B) and Australia ($7.2B), with a combined 43% share of global exports. The Netherlands, Argentina, Canada, New Zealand, India, Ireland, Uruguay, Poland, Mexico and Paraguay lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

Argentina, with a CAGR of +13.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat represented the largest exported product with an export of about 6.2M tons, which recorded 57% of total exports. Fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat (2.5M tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (963K tons) and frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (665K tons). All these products together took approx. 38% share of total exports. Fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat (483K tons) took a little share of total exports.

Exports of frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat (+10.8%) and fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat (+3.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.8% from 2012-2022. Fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat and fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat and frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat increased by +3.5 and +3.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest types of exported beef (cattle meat) were frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat ($35.2B), fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat ($21.9B) and fresh or chilled bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat ($5.6B), together accounting for 92% of global exports. Frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat, fresh or chilled carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat and frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 8.4%.

Among the main exported products, frozen bone-in cuts (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses) of bovine meat, with a CAGR of +13.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average beef export price amounted to $6,278 per ton, picking up by 8.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled boneless cuts of bovine meat ($8,597 per ton), while the average price for exports of frozen carcasses and half-carcasses of bovine meat ($4,116 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen boneless cuts of bovine meat (+3.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average beef export price stood at $6,278 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 17% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($8,888 per ton), while India ($2,783 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform