Bread and Bakery Market

The article discusses the current and projected trends in the global bread and bakery market, highlighting the expected increase in consumption volume and value over the period from 2022 to 2030. It provides insights into market performance, forecasted growth rates, and key factors influencing the market, such as demand trends, production statistics, and import-export dynamics. The report also analyzes the top consuming and producing countries, major product categories, and average price trends for bread and bakery exports and imports. The data presented in the article offer valuable information for industry stakeholders, investors, and decision-makers looking to understand the dynamics of the global bread and bakery market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for bread and bakery worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 312M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,034.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Bread and Bakery

After ten years of growth, consumption of bread and bakery decreased by -0.8% to 275M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 278M tons in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

The global bread and bakery market size dropped modestly to $784B in 2022, shrinking by -1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 5.2% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $798.9B in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (53M tons) remains the largest bread and bakery consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, bread and bakery consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (20M tons), threefold. Pakistan (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.5% share.

In China, bread and bakery consumption increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.1% per year) and Pakistan (+1.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($163.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($63B). It was followed by Indonesia.

In China, the bread and bakery market increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.7% per year) and Indonesia (+0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of bread and bakery per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (83 kg per person), the UK (82 kg per person) and Russia (64 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +3.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (223M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, comprising approx. 81% of total volume. Moreover, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (44M tons), fivefold.

For fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (+1.8% per year) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (+2.3% per year).

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery ($612.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($135.1B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery market totaled +1.9%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (+1.8% per year) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (+2.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Bread and Bakery

In 2022, production of bread and bakery decreased by -0.8% to 275M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 3.7%. Global production peaked at 278M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, bread and bakery production contracted modestly to $783.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 9.5%. Global production peaked at $859.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of bread and bakery production was China (53M tons), accounting for 19% of total volume. Moreover, bread and bakery production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (18M tons), threefold. Pakistan (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.5% share.

In China, bread and bakery production increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+1.4% per year) and Pakistan (+1.9% per year).

Production By Type

Fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (223M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 81% of total volume. Moreover, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (44M tons), fivefold.

For fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, production increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (+1.8% per year) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (+2.4% per year).

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery ($615B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($137.5B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery production amounted to +2.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (+2.1% per year) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (+2.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Bread and Bakery

Global bread and bakery imports totaled 15M tons in 2022, with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 7.8%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, bread and bakery imports stood at $48.1B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +60.5% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (2.4M tons), distantly followed by the UK (1,064K tons), Germany (1,036K tons), France (872K tons) and the Netherlands (779K tons) represented the largest importers of bread and bakery, together making up 41% of total imports. The following importers - Belgium (562K tons), Canada (509K tons), Italy (367K tons), Spain (338K tons), Austria (262K tons) and Poland (249K tons) - together made up 15% of total imports.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the bread and bakery imports, with a CAGR of +9.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Poland (+7.8%), the Netherlands (+5.8%), Germany (+5.4%), the UK (+4.7%), Italy (+4.1%), Belgium (+4.0%), Canada (+3.1%), Austria (+2.9%), France (+2.8%) and Spain (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of the United States (+5.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($9.4B) constitutes the largest market for imported bread and bakery worldwide, comprising 20% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the UK ($3.6B), with a 7.5% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States amounted to +10.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the UK (+5.1% per year) and Germany (+5.2% per year).

Imports By Type

Fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery was the main imported product with an import of about 9.7M tons, which accounted for 64% of total imports. It was distantly followed by gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (5M tons), generating a 33% share of total imports. Crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (501K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (with a CAGR of +5.5%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery ($30.6B), gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($16B) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ($1.5B) were the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022.

Fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, with a CAGR of +6.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average bread and bakery import price amounted to $3,176 per ton, with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 6.1%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($3,236 per ton), while the price for crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ($2,931 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (+0.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average bread and bakery import price amounted to $3,176 per ton, with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 6.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,002 per ton), while the Netherlands ($2,337 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+1.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Bread and Bakery

For the eleventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of bread and bakery, which increased by 4.2% to 15M tons in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +61.3% against 2012 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 12%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, bread and bakery exports expanded significantly to $48.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +66.1% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (1.7M tons), followed by Canada (954K tons), Belgium (900K tons), France (880K tons), Mexico (833K tons), the Netherlands (821K tons), Poland (816K tons), Italy (788K tons) and the United States (720K tons) were the key exporters of bread and bakery, together mixing up 56% of total exports. Spain (620K tons), Turkey (560K tons), Indonesia (379K tons) and the UK (344K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +13.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($4.9B), Canada ($4.8B) and Italy ($3.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 27% share of global exports. Belgium, France, Poland, the Netherlands, the United States, Mexico, Spain, Turkey, the UK and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

Poland, with a CAGR of +12.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery was the major exported product with an export of around 9.5M tons, which reached 63% of total exports. It was distantly followed by gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles (5M tons), generating a 33% share of total exports. Crispbread, rusks and toasted bread (539K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (with a CAGR of +5.4%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported bread and bakery were fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery ($30.5B), gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($16.4B) and crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ($1.6B).

In terms of the main exported products, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, with a CAGR of +6.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average bread and bakery export price amounted to $3,229 per ton, surging by 4.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($3,266 per ton), while the average price for exports of crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ($2,954 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery (+1.1%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average bread and bakery export price amounted to $3,229 per ton, growing by 4.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,984 per ton), while Turkey ($2,497 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform