Cheese Market

The global cheese market is expected to witness a steady increase in consumption volume and market value over the next eight years. With a projected CAGR of +1.4% in consumption volume and +4.3% in market value from 2022 to 2030, the market is estimated to reach 27M tons and $274.1B respectively by the end of 2030. Despite a slight decrease in consumption in 2022, the market has shown consistent growth over the years. The United States leads in both consumption and production of cheese, followed by Germany and France. Imports and exports of cheese have also seen an upward trend, with key players including Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy. Different types of cheese, such as unripened, processed, and grated, influence the market dynamics. Pricing trends vary by product type and exporting country, with export prices rising steadily. Overall, the global cheese market is poised for continued growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 27M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $274.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cheese

After ten years of growth, consumption of cheese decreased by -0.1% to 24M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 24M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

The global cheese market revenue contracted slightly to $195.2B in 2022, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $196.9B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The United States (6M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cheese consumption, comprising approx. 25% of total volume. Moreover, cheese consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (1.9M tons), threefold. France (1.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.1% share.

In the United States, cheese consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (+0.7% per year) and France (-0.3% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($29.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($10.5B). It was followed by Germany.

In the United States, the cheese market increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-1.6% per year) and Germany (+1.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (23 kg per person), France (22 kg per person) and Italy (21 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +3.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cheese

For the eleventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of cheese, which increased by 0.4% to 24M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 2.3%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, cheese production rose notably to $175.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.6%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The United States (6.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cheese production, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, cheese production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (2.4M tons), threefold. France (1.7M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7% share.

In the United States, cheese production increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Germany (+0.6% per year) and France (-1.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cheese

For the eleventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of cheese, which increased by 0.9% to 7.8M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 6.8%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cheese imports rose sharply to $41.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (877K tons), followed by Italy (551K tons), France (456K tons), the UK (426K tons), Belgium (411K tons), the Netherlands (405K tons) and Spain (385K tons) represented the major importers of cheese, together mixing up 45% of total imports. The following importers - Russia (317K tons), Japan (278K tons), the United States (190K tons), Saudi Arabia (188K tons), South Korea (155K tons) and Sweden (149K tons) - together made up 16% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Korea (with a CAGR of +6.5%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cheese importing markets worldwide were Germany ($5.5B), France ($2.9B) and Italy ($2.8B), together comprising 27% of global imports.

France, with a CAGR of +6.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed represented the main type of cheese in the world, with the volume of imports finishing at 3.8M tons, which was approx. 53% of total imports in 2022. Unripened or uncured cheese (2.1M tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 30% share, followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (9.1%) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (7.1%).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +6.0%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($22.8B) constitutes the largest type of cheese imported worldwide, comprising 59% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($9B), with a 23% share of global imports. It was followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered), with an 8% share.

For cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.0% per year) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (+0.1% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average cheese import price amounted to $5,312 per ton, increasing by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($7,800 per ton), while the price for unripened or uncured cheese ($4,215 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (+1.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cheese import price amounted to $5,312 per ton, rising by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($8,196 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($3,783 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+1.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cheese

For the eleventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of cheese, which increased by 2.5% to 7.8M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 5.8% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, cheese exports totaled $42.7B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Germany (1,321K tons), the Netherlands (1,010K tons), France (674K tons), Italy (573K tons), New Zealand (464K tons), the United States (454K tons), Denmark (402K tons), Belarus (320K tons), Poland (287K tons), Belgium (280K tons), Ireland (254K tons) and the UK (188K tons), together finishing at 80% of total export. Austria (156K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6.4B), the Netherlands ($5.5B) and Italy ($4.8B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 39% share of global exports. France, the United States, New Zealand, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, Belarus, the UK and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Among the main exporting countries, Belarus, with a CAGR of +8.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (3.9M tons) was the largest type of cheese, committing 50% of total exports. Unripened or uncured cheese (2.4M tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (686K tons) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (654K tons). All these products together held near 49% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($23.2B) remains the largest type of cheese supplied worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($10.3B), with a 25% share of global exports. It was followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered, with a 9.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed exports totaled +2.4%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.3% per year) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (+9.6% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,460 per ton, growing by 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($7,935 per ton), while the average price for exports of unripened or uncured cheese ($4,218 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (+1.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,460 per ton, surging by 12% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,413 per ton), while Belarus ($4,105 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by New Zealand (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform