Refined Cotton-Seed Oil Market

The article explores the growth trends in the refined cotton-seed oil market, projecting an increase in both volume and value terms over the period from 2022 to 2030. Consumption, production, imports, and exports are analyzed, highlighting key players like China, the United States, and India. The data shows noticeable fluctuations in trends, with some countries experiencing rapid growth in both production and consumption. Overall, the market is expected to see gradual growth in the immediate future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for refined cotton-seed oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Cotton-Seed Oil

In 2022, consumption of refined cotton-seed oil was finally on the rise to reach 4.2M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.4%. Global consumption peaked at 4.8M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global refined cotton-seed oil market revenue was estimated at $11.5B in 2022, increasing by 10% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a mild increase. Global consumption peaked at $11.5B in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (714K tons), the United States (415K tons) and India (255K tons), with a combined 33% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +3.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest refined cotton-seed oil markets worldwide were the UK ($1.2B), China ($889M) and India ($762M), with a combined 25% share of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +4.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of refined cotton-seed oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (1,485 kg per 1000 persons), France (1,351 kg per 1000 persons) and the UK (1,257 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +2.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Refined Cotton-Seed Oil

In 2022, production of refined cotton-seed oil was finally on the rise to reach 4.2M tons after three years of decline. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 5.9% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 4.8M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, refined cotton-seed oil production contracted to $10.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 8.1%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $12.1B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (722K tons), the United States (446K tons) and India (252K tons), with a combined 34% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Refined Cotton-Seed Oil

In 2022, overseas purchases of refined cotton-seed oil were finally on the rise to reach 126K tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 131K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined cotton-seed oil imports soared to $242M in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a strong expansion. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Australia (25K tons), distantly followed by Malaysia (13K tons), the United States (13K tons), Ethiopia (11K tons), France (7K tons) and Nigeria (6.6K tons) represented the main importers of refined cotton-seed oil, together committing 60% of total imports. Uzbekistan (5.6K tons), the Netherlands (5.5K tons), Canada (4.8K tons), Spain (4.1K tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (3.7K tons), Tajikistan (3.6K tons) and Kyrgyzstan (3.3K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +79.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest refined cotton-seed oil importing markets worldwide were Australia ($44M), Spain ($25M) and Malaysia ($24M), together accounting for 38% of global imports.

Spain, with a CAGR of +94.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average refined cotton-seed oil import price stood at $1,918 per ton in 2022, surging by 37% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined cotton-seed oil import price increased by +104.1% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 38%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($6,112 per ton), while the United States ($927 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+11.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Cotton-Seed Oil

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of refined cotton-seed oil increased by 12% to 123K tons in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a slight reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 34% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 152K tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, refined cotton-seed oil exports soared to $199M in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +117.2% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The United States was the largest exporter of refined cotton-seed oil in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 44K tons, which was approx. 35% of total exports in 2022. Argentina (20K tons) took a 16% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Kazakhstan (9.9%), Malaysia (5.9%), China (5.8%), Benin (5.8%) and Turkey (5.1%).

Exports from the United States decreased at an average annual rate of -6.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+46.7%), Turkey (+22.4%), China (+19.1%), Malaysia (+4.4%) and Argentina (+3.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +46.7% from 2012-2022. Benin experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Kazakhstan, Argentina, China, Turkey and Malaysia increased by +9.7, +5.7, +4.9, +4.5 and +2.4 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($70M) emerged as the largest refined cotton-seed oil supplier worldwide, comprising 35% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Argentina ($30M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with a 9.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +2.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Argentina (+6.1% per year) and Kazakhstan (+48.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average refined cotton-seed oil export price amounted to $1,619 per ton, surging by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined cotton-seed oil export price increased by +85.8% against 2019 indices. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Malaysia ($2,255 per ton), while Benin ($1,453 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+10.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform