Refined Maize Oil Market

The article discusses the rising demand for refined maize oil globally, forecasting an increase in market volume and value over the next eight years. Consumption of refined maize oil has shown slight fluctuations since 2012, with China being the largest consumer and producer. The United States and Turkey are key exporters, while the United States and Mexico are major importers. Average prices for refined maize oil have experienced moderate growth trends, with notable fluctuations in recent years. Overall, the market for refined maize oil is expected to see incremental growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for refined maize oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $17.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2022, consumption of refined maize (corn) oil was finally on the rise to reach 6.5M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year declining trend. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight decrease. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 8.5M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global refined maize oil market size fell slightly to $12.6B in 2022, reducing by -4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 9.1% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $15.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (1.2M tons) remains the largest refined maize oil consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, refined maize oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (495K tons), twofold. The United States (451K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+2.3% per year) and the United States (-1.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.9B), India ($1.8B) and the United States ($605M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 34% of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +4.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of refined maize oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (1,427 kg per 1000 persons), Turkey (1,427 kg per 1000 persons) and the United States (1,346 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +2.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2022, production of refined maize (corn) oil increased by 1.6% to 6.6M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year declining trend. In general, production, however, recorded a mild downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 8.5M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, refined maize oil production fell to $12.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 14%. Global production peaked at $15.2B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.2M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of refined maize oil production, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, refined maize oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (495K tons), twofold. The United States (492K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.5% share.

In China, refined maize oil production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+2.3% per year) and the United States (-3.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2022, global refined maize oil imports dropped notably to 259K tons, shrinking by -18.9% on 2021. Overall, imports continue to indicate a deep downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 19%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 511K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, refined maize oil imports contracted slightly to $530M in 2022. In general, imports recorded a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 38% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $835M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Libya (54K tons), distantly followed by Tunisia (21K tons), the United States (19K tons), Germany (17K tons), Qatar (12K tons) and Canada (12K tons) were the major importers of refined maize (corn) oil, together generating 52% of total imports. The following importers - the United Arab Emirates (11K tons), Jordan (9.4K tons), Greece (7.5K tons), Mexico (6.5K tons), Hong Kong SAR (6.3K tons), Malaysia (6.2K tons) and Israel (5.9K tons) - together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to refined maize oil imports into Libya stood at -8.8%. At the same time, Qatar (+11.0%), Mexico (+8.3%), Germany (+6.3%) and Malaysia (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Qatar emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.0% from 2012-2022. Hong Kong SAR and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Canada (-1.7%), Israel (-2.5%), Jordan (-4.5%), Greece (-6.9%), Tunisia (-9.2%) and the United Arab Emirates (-9.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Germany (+4.8 p.p.), Qatar (+3.8 p.p.), the United States (+3.6 p.p.), Mexico (+1.9 p.p.) and Canada (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of the United Arab Emirates (-1.9 p.p.), Tunisia (-3.2 p.p.) and Libya (-7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Libya ($112M) constitutes the largest market for imported refined maize (corn) oil worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($44M), with an 8.2% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.1% share.

In Libya, refined maize oil imports shrank by an average annual rate of -7.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+8.1% per year) and the United States (+3.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average refined maize oil import price stood at $2,049 per ton in 2022, picking up by 19% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined maize oil import price increased by +71.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 33% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,526 per ton), while Tunisia ($1,315 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2022, the amount of refined maize (corn) oil exported worldwide declined to 291K tons, falling by -6.3% on 2021. Over the period under review, exports saw a deep slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 562K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined maize oil exports soared to $641M in 2022. Overall, exports showed a noticeable curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $989M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

The United States (60K tons) and Turkey (49K tons) represented the key exporters of refined maize (corn) oil in 2022, accounting for approx. 20% and 17% of total exports, respectively. Belgium (25K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Tunisia (20K tons), Saudi Arabia (20K tons), China (19K tons), Canada (16K tons) and Italy (14K tons). All these countries together held approx. 39% share of total exports. South Africa (9K tons), France (5.9K tons), Austria (5.9K tons), South Korea (4.9K tons) and Spain (4.8K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Africa (with a CAGR of +35.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest refined maize oil supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($139M), Turkey ($100M) and Belgium ($53M), together comprising 45% of global exports. Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, China, Canada, Italy, South Africa, Austria, France, Spain and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, South Africa, with a CAGR of +38.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average refined maize oil export price stood at $2,201 per ton in 2022, jumping by 26% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined maize oil export price increased by +79.8% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Saudi Arabia ($2,660 per ton) and Austria ($2,614 per ton), while Canada ($1,865 per ton) and South Korea ($1,988 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform