Global Antibiotics Market: Growing Demand Expected to Drive Market Volume to 211K tons and Market Value to $21B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Antibiotics - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global antibiotics market is poised for steady growth with a projected CAGR of +2.2% in volume and +4.4% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is fueled by rising demand for antibiotics across the globe, leading to an overall positive outlook for the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for antibiotics worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 211K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $21B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Antibiotics

In 2023, approx. 181K tons of antibiotics were consumed worldwide; reducing by -1.7% on the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 184K tons in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global antibiotic market revenue declined to $15.6B in 2023, with a decrease of -8.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $17.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (37K tons), India (20K tons) and Brazil (7.9K tons), with a combined 36% share of global consumption. The United States, Japan, Germany, Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +14.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($2.3B), China ($1.6B) and Italy ($1.3B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together accounting for 33% of the global market. India, the United States, Mexico, Germany, Brazil, Turkey, the Netherlands, Spain, Vietnam and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +11.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of antibiotic per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (199 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Spain (72 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (64 kg per 1000 persons) and Thailand (60 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of antibiotic was estimated at 23 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the antibiotic per capita consumption in the Netherlands amounted to +11.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+14.9% per year) and Germany (+1.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Antibiotics

Global antibiotic production rose to 179K tons in 2023, increasing by 2.2% on the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 76%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, antibiotic production dropped slightly to $13.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 36%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $14.6B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (113K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of antibiotic production, comprising approx. 63% of total volume. Moreover, antibiotic production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (15K tons), eightfold. Spain (8K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.5% share.

In China, antibiotic production remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+3.5% per year) and Spain (+1.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Antibiotics

In 2023, purchases abroad of antibiotics was finally on the rise to reach 134K tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 3% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 147K tons. From 2015 to 2023, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, antibiotic imports dropped modestly to $11.3B in 2023. Overall, imports, however, recorded a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 9.1% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $13.1B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

India was the main importing country with an import of around 31K tons, which recorded 23% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Brazil (7.9K tons), committing a 5.8% share of total imports. The United States (5.8K tons), the Netherlands (4.9K tons), Vietnam (4.8K tons), Italy (4.5K tons), Thailand (4.4K tons), the UK (4K tons), Spain (3.8K tons), Turkey (2.7K tons), Indonesia (2.7K tons), Belgium (2.6K tons) and Mexico (2.6K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to antibiotic imports into India stood at +3.9%. At the same time, Belgium (+4.8%), the Netherlands (+4.1%), Turkey (+3.1%), Thailand (+1.2%) and Mexico (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.8% from 2013-2023. Brazil experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Vietnam (-2.5%), the United States (-3.0%), Spain (-3.2%), the UK (-4.2%), Indonesia (-4.3%) and Italy (-4.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of India increased by +8.3 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($1.9B), Italy ($1.1B) and the United States ($716M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together comprising 34% of global imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Brazil, Spain, Vietnam, Turkey, the UK, Thailand, Mexico and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

Belgium, with a CAGR of +11.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average antibiotic import price stood at $84,302 per ton in 2023, waning by -1.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 12%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $91,859 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($252,380 per ton), while Thailand ($36,214 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+8.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Antibiotics

In 2023, overseas shipments of antibiotics were finally on the rise to reach 132K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a slight downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 78% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 151K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, antibiotic exports rose to $10.7B in 2023. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $11.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, amounting to 76K tons, which was approx. 58% of total exports in 2023. The United States (13K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 9.9% share, followed by India (8.5%), Spain (6.3%) and the Netherlands (4.8%). Italy (4.8K tons) and Singapore (2.8K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from China decreased at an average annual rate of -1.4% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, the Netherlands (+9.0%) and the United States (+8.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.0% from 2013-2023. India experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-2.1%), Singapore (-2.3%) and Spain (-2.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+6.2 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.1B) remains the largest antibiotic supplier worldwide, comprising 38% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($1.1B), with a 10% share of global exports. It was followed by India, with a 9.3% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +3.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.1% per year) and India (+0.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average antibiotic export price stood at $80,991 per ton in 2023, which is down by -2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 73%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $123,245 per ton. From 2017 to 2023, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($363,019 per ton), while Spain ($48,573 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+8.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform