Global Beer Market: Projected to Reach 207B Litres by 2030, Valued at $220.4B

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The demand for beer worldwide is driving the market to an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The market performance is predicted to grow slightly, with a projected CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.7% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 207B litres, and the market value is projected to hit $220.4B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for beer worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 207B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $220.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Beer

In 2023, approx. 187B litres of beer were consumed worldwide; standing approx. at the year before. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5.2%. Global consumption peaked at 190B litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global beer market size totaled $170.4B in 2023, approximately mirroring the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 8.9%. Global consumption peaked at $172.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (35B litres), the United States (25B litres) and Brazil (17B litres), with a combined 41% share of global consumption. Mexico, Russia, Germany, the UK, Vietnam, Spain, Poland, Cameroon and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +13.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest beer markets worldwide were the United States ($37.2B), China ($22.9B) and Mexico ($11.1B), together accounting for 42% of the global market. Brazil, Germany, Russia, Spain, Vietnam, the UK, Cameroon, South Africa and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Cameroon, with a CAGR of +14.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of beer per capita consumption in 2023 were Cameroon (129 litres per person), Poland (99 litres per person) and Spain (84 litres per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Beer

In 2023, global beer production totaled 186B litres, remaining constant against 2022. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 4.4%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 191B litres in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, beer production reached $169.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $173.8B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (36B litres), the United States (20B litres) and Brazil (17B litres), with a combined 39% share of global production. Mexico, Russia, Germany, Vietnam, Poland, Spain, the UK, Cameroon and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +13.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Beer

In 2023, global imports of beer declined to 15B litres, which is down by -5.3% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 17B litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, beer imports rose modestly to $17.6B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 9.4%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the United States (4.7B litres) represented the largest importer of beer, mixing up 30% of total imports. It was distantly followed by France (851M litres), the UK (811M litres) and Italy (718M litres), together making up a 15% share of total imports. Spain (562M litres), the Netherlands (559M litres), Germany (553M litres), China (418M litres), Russia (396M litres), Ireland (268M litres), South Korea (243M litres) and Taiwan (Chinese) (236M litres) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to beer imports into the United States stood at +3.9%. At the same time, South Korea (+9.3%), China (+8.7%), Ireland (+7.6%), the Netherlands (+4.8%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+4.7%), Spain (+3.8%), France (+3.2%), Russia (+2.6%) and Italy (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.3% from 2013-2023. The UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-1.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+3.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany and the UK saw its share reduced by -1.8% and -2.1% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($6.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported beer worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($1.2B), with a 6.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 4.6% share.

In the United States, beer imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: France (+6.8% per year) and Italy (+2.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average beer import price stood at $1.1 per litre in 2023, picking up by 9.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1.5 per litre), while Russia ($0.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Beer

In 2023, shipments abroad of beer decreased by -3.1% to 15B litres, falling for the fourth year in a row after seven years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 17B litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, beer exports reached $17.5B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 9.7%. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Mexico (3.9B litres), distantly followed by the Netherlands (1.8B litres), Germany (1.4B litres) and Belgium (1.4B litres) were the key exporters of beer, together committing 56% of total exports. China (621M litres), the Czech Republic (530M litres), France (447M litres), the UK (412M litres), Ireland (410M litres), Spain (370M litres), Italy (347M litres), Denmark (267M litres) and the United States (235M litres) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to beer exports from Mexico stood at +5.3%. At the same time, Spain (+10.6%), China (+9.6%), Italy (+6.2%), the Czech Republic (+3.5%), Belgium (+2.6%) and Ireland (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.6% from 2013-2023. The Netherlands and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Denmark (-1.1%), France (-1.3%), the UK (-4.6%) and the United States (-7.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of Mexico and China increased by +8.1 and +2.2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($5.8B) remains the largest beer supplier worldwide, comprising 33% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($2.3B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Belgium, with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in Mexico stood at +10.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+1.3% per year) and Belgium (+4.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average beer export price stood at $1.1 per litre in 2023, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1.6 per litre), while China ($0.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform