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EU - Dairy Produce - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: May 1, 2024

EU - Dairy Produce - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Article Publishing Date: Jan 11, 2022

EU Dairy Market Forecast: Cheese Prices to Rise Sharply, Butter and Fluid Milk to Keep Calm

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Dairy Produce - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

EU cheese prices are expected to rise with the boosting export demand, while fluid milk and butter prices will keep relatively stable. The EU dairy market is forecast to grow only moderately, having raw milk availability restrained by sustainability objectives. Despite that, the EU is to remain the largest dairy exporter worldwide.

Key Trends and Insights

This year, EU dairy prices are forecast to increase, driven by high demand against limited supply. The average cheese price will post the most noticeable gains, rising to $3.23 (+5.1% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021), while milk will be up to $0.346 per kg (only a +0.6% increase). By 2025, cheese could reach $3.30 per kg, and milk will cost $0.361 per kg. Butter price will remain stable near $2.2 per kg throughout the next five years.

According to the EU Agricultural Outlook 2021-31, in the next decade, the growth of EU milk production will slow down to +0.5% per year due to a decline in herds driven by sustainability objectives. In 2022, dairy cow milk production should increase by 1.4% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021 and total 156M tons; then, it should reach 158M tons by 2025. The number of dairy cows is expected to decrease from 20.0M heads in 2022 to 19.6M in 2025.

This year, cream production is projected to rise to 2.5M tons (+1.4% compared to the three-year average 2019-2021), while by 2025, it will reach 2.6M tons. Yoghurt and butter production will not see significant changes, remaining at 7.8M tons and 2.4M tons, respectively.

In 2022, cheese production will expand to 10.9M tons (+1.8%) and reach 11.1M tons by 2025. Thanks to the rising demand in Asia, foreign trade in cheese will see gains, while the domestic market will expand only moderately since cheese is a long-known product with established consumption patterns. The EU is expected to keep its position as the largest exporter of dairy products, outstepping New Zealand and the U.S. in shipment volumes. Currently, the largest European suppliers of dairy products are Germany (23%), the Netherlands (12%) and France (11%).

Dairy Produce Exports in the EU

In 2020, the amount of dairy produce exported in the EU declined to 19M tons, stabilizing from the previous year. In value terms, dairy exports amounted to $43.4B.

In 2020, Germany (4.6M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.3M tons), France (2.1M tons), Belgium (1.5M tons), Poland (1.3M tons), the Czech Republic (1.1M tons), Ireland (1M tons) and Austria (0.9M tons) were the largest exporters of dairy produce, together constituting 76% of total exports. Denmark (765K tons), Italy (540K tons), Latvia (407K tons), Spain (379K tons), and Luxembourg (366K tons) occupied a relatively small share of total volume.

In value terms, Germany ($8.7B), the Netherlands ($7.5B) and France ($5.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 50% share of total supplies. Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Poland, Austria, Spain, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

In 2020, the average dairy produce export price in the EU amounted to $2,238 per ton, rising by 2.1% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Italy, while Latvia was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the dairy produce market in the EU. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 888 - Skim Milk of Cows
  • FCL 1130 - Camel milk
  • FCL 882 - Cow milk, whole (fresh)
  • FCL 1020 - Goat milk
  • FCL 982 - Sheep milk
  • FCL 951 - Buffalo milk
  • FCL 897 - Dry Whole Cow Milk
  • FCL 898 - Dry Skim Cow Milk
  • FCL 889 - Whole Milk, Condensed
  • FCL 894 - Whole Milk, Evaporated
  • FCL 895 - Skim Milk, Evaporated
  • FCL 896 - Skim Milk, Condensed
  • FCL 891 - Yoghurt
  • FCL 983 - Butter and Ghee of Sheep Milk
  • FCL 1022 - Butter of Goat Milk
  • FCL 952 - Butter of Buffalo Milk
  • FCL 886 - Butter of Cow Milk
  • FCL 887 - Ghee from Cow Milk
  • FCL 953 - Ghee, from Buffalo Milk
  • FCL 901 - Cheese from Whole Cow Milk
  • FCL 904 - Cheese from Skimmed Cow Milk
  • FCL 905 - Whey Cheese
  • FCL 907 - Processed Cheese
  • FCL 955 - Cheese of Buffalo Milk
  • FCL 984 - Cheese of Sheep Milk
  • FCL 1021 - Cheese of Goat Milk
  • FCL 885 - Cream, Fresh
  • FCL 893 - Buttermilk, Curdled Milk, Acidified Milk
  • FCL 899 - Dry Buttermilk
  • FCL 892 - Yoghurt, Concentrated or Unconcent

Country coverage:

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Production in the EU, split by region and country
  • Trade (exports and imports) in the EU
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • Austria
    • Belgium
    • Bulgaria
    • Croatia
    • Cyprus
    • Czech Republic
    • Denmark
    • Estonia
    • Finland
    • France
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Hungary
    • Ireland
    • Italy
    • Latvia
    • Lithuania
    • Luxembourg
    • Malta
    • Netherlands
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Romania
    • Slovakia
    • Slovenia
    • Spain
    • Sweden

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2023
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    3. Market Value, 2012–2023
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
    9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    2. Market Value, 2012–2023
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2023
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Exports And Growth
    12. Export Prices And Growth
    13. Market Size And Growth
    14. Per Capita Consumption
    15. Imports And Growth
    16. Import Prices
    17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    19. Production, By Country, 2023
    20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
    27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    32. Export Prices, 2012–2023

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