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World - Coffee (Green) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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View PricingCoffee Prices Jump to Seven-Year Highs Due to Brazilian Frosts
IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Coffee (Green) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.
Global prices for coffee have skyrocketed to a seven-year high, driven by fears of a significant reduction in production in Brazil due to freezes and the depletion of global stocks. Further growth in prices for the product will be stimulated by the reduction in production in other leading supplying countries such as Honduras and Indonesia, coupled with increased freight costs. A decrease in coffee production will lead to a fall in global exports by -4% y-o-y, which could lead to local imbalances in supply and demand and drive up consumer prices in key European and American markets.
Key Trends and Insights
Due to an expected reduction in coffee stocks following the fall of production in Brazil, prices on the global coffee market have skyrocketed in the middle of the current year. Futures in Arabica on the ICE exchange in July 2021 exceeded $2 per pound for the first time in seven years.
Abnormal freezes in the Brazilian states of São-Paolo, Paraná, and Minas Gerais in July this year damaged more than 200K hectares and will affect plantation yields. As a result, coffee production according to USDA estimates may decline by -30% y-o-y to 2.2M tons by the end of 2021. Labor shortages related to the pandemic, logistical difficulties and the rise of freight costs are further deterring supply and stimulating the price increases.
Brazil remains the leading supplier of green coffee with 29.3% of global exports. Following that is Vietnam (17.2%), Colombia (10.3%), Honduras (5.2%) and Indonesia (3.4%). Global coffee exports will fall by -4% y-o-y to 16.6M tons in 2021 owing primarily to the reduction in supplies from Brazil.
According to IndexBox estimates, based on USDA data, the production of Arabica coffee in Vietnam will rise by +15% y-o-y in the current year and the production of Robusta will contract by -2% y-o-y. In Colombia, coffee production will maintain its 2020 levels. Production in Honduras and Indonesia is expected to decline by -12% y-o-y and -2% y-o-y respectively. The expected drop in global coffee production by -6% y-o-y to 9.8M tons amidst an increase in demand by +1% y-o-y this year will lead to a reduction in world stocks and further increases in price.
The import of green coffee into the EU should fall by -5% y-o-y up to 2.9M tons due to the decrease in crop fields in the primary supplier countries of Brazil and Honduras. In the U.S. a less severe drop in imports is expected - by -1% y-o-y to 4.2M tons since a significant part of coffee beans comes from countries with stable crop yields during the current year, such as Vietnam and Colombia. A reduction in coffee stocks can lead to imbalances of supply and demand that will threaten the growth of consumer prices for the drink in retail and food services.
Global Coffee Production
In 2020, approx. 10M tons of coffee (green) were produced worldwide; surging by 1.8% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2020. In value terms, green coffee production rose markedly to $27.7B in 2020 estimated in export prices.
The countries with the highest volumes of green coffee production in 2020 were Brazil (3.1M tons), Vietnam (1.7M tons) and Colombia (897K tons), with a combined 55% share of global production. These countries were followed by Indonesia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Peru, India, Uganda, Guatemala, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Nicaragua and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 33%.
Coffee Exports by Country
After two years of growth, overseas shipments of coffee (green) decreased by -6.5% to 6.8M tons in 2020. In value terms, green coffee exports fell to $17.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.
In 2020, Brazil (2.4M tons) was the largest exporter of coffee (green), mixing up 35% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Vietnam (1,208K tons), Colombia (599K tons) and Indonesia (376K tons), together committing a 32% share of total exports. The following exporters - Honduras (305K tons), Germany (210K tons), India (206K tons), Uganda (205K tons), Guatemala (190K tons), Ethiopia (175K tons), Peru (172K tons) and Nicaragua (128K tons) - together made up 23% of total exports.
In value terms, Brazil ($5B) remains the largest green coffee supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Colombia ($2.4B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 11% share.
In 2020, the average green coffee export price amounted to $2,531 per ton, increasing by 4% against the previous year. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Peru, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global green coffee market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
Product coverage:
- FCL 656 - Coffee green
Country coverage:
Worldwide - the report contains statistical data for 200 countries and includes detailed profiles of the 50 largest consuming countries:
- USA
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
+ the largest producing countries
Data coverage:
- Global market volume and value
- Per Capita consumption
- Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
- Global production, split by region and country
- Global trade (exports and imports)
- Export and import prices
- Market trends, drivers and restraints
- Key market players and their profiles
Company coverage:
Reasons to buy this report:
- Take advantage of the latest data
- Find deeper insights into current market developments
- Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.
In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
- How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
- How to load your idle production capacity
- How to boost your sales on overseas markets
- How to increase your profit margins
- How to make your supply chain more sustainable
- How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
- How to outsource production to other countries
- How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
- HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2023
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Market Value, 2012–2023
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
- Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Market Value, 2012–2023
- Consumption, By Country, 2023
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Yield And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Area Harvested, 2012–2023
- Yield, 2012–2023
- Production, By Country, 2023
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
- Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Export Prices, 2012–2023