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World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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View PricingWheat Harvest Is Expected to Increase Globally, But Prices Continue to Rally on Inflationary Expectations
IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.
This year, harvests in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Argentina, Morocco and Ukraine are expected to increase, leading to a growth in wheat production. Even though global stockpiles of grains will remain high, there are boosted expectations for inflation due to forecasts of record demand and increased prices for other cereal grains. The rising global population and bioethanol production are key factors leading to this growth in demand for wheat. Another driving factor is the emerging trend in the EU to use more wheat in animal feed rather than barley.
Key Trends and Insights
In 2021, global wheat production is expected to rise by 13M to 932M tons (IndexBox estimates). Overall, crop production is expected to increase due to positive weather conditions in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt, China, India and Argentina. This record level of production will help keep global grain stockpiles high. In Russia, Kazakhstan, Australia and Canada, a small drop in crop production is expected. In Canada, this is a result of decreasing acres designated for wheat production and instead allocating the space for canola and barley.
In May 2021, global export prices for corn sharply increased, and wheat followed in suit. This was largely due to fears of poor weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. Another impact comes from the inflationary expectations that reflect the expected demand growth. In Canada, the price grew by $48 per ton, in the US by $56 per ton and in the EU by $43 per ton. In Australia, the price also grew by $35 per ton due to strong exports, while in Argentina, it grew by $27 per ton. Russian prices grew by $34 per ton but remained at a competitive level. World Bank expects the average wheat price (Wheat, US, HRW) to surge by 9% in 2021 to $230 per ton and then to continue growing gradually.
Global demand for wheat in 2021 should reach a record level primarily due to increased demand in South Asia for food products containing wheat. Consumer food preferences in both India and China have shifted toward wheat products and thus driven up demand.
In the next few years, the use of wheat in animal feed is expected to expand, especially in the EU, where a high yield will enable this growth. A similar trend is expected in the U.S. and the UK, driven by growing wheat production. However, in East Asia, the use of wheat in animal feed is predicted to decrease against the rising use of corn.
In the next decade, bioethanol production should additionally cause the market for wheat to grow. Another key factor will be the increased demand for antiseptics arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in the antiseptic industry is expected to continue driving bioethanol production for at least the next few years.
Wheat Consumption by Country
The global wheat market stood at $295B in 2020, increasing by 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).
China (280M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat consumption, accounting for 31% of total volume. Moreover, wheat consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (105M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Russia (66M tons), with a 7.2% share.
From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +1.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.4% per year) and Russia (+14.6% per year).
In value terms, China ($123.6B) led the market alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($27.7B). It was followed by Russia.
The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2020 were Russia (455 kg per person), France (331 kg per person) and the UK (266 kg per person).
Wheat Imports by Country
In 2020, supplies from abroad of wheat decreased by -8.1% to 167M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. In value terms, wheat imports contracted slightly to $39.9B in 2020.
In 2020, Egypt (9.6M tons), China (8.2M tons), Italy (8M tons), Indonesia (7.2M tons), Algeria (7M tons), Brazil (6.6M tons), the Philippines (5.7M tons), Japan (5.4M tons), Morocco (4.9M tons), Nigeria (4.7M tons), the Netherlands (4.4M tons) and Spain (4.1M tons) represented the main importer of wheat in the world, generating 45% of total import. Mexico (4M tons) occupied a minor share of total imports.
From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in China, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), China ($2.3B) and Italy ($2B), with a combined 18% share of global imports.
China saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global wheat market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
Product coverage:
- FCL 15 - Wheat
Country coverage:
Worldwide - the report contains statistical data for 200 countries and includes detailed profiles of the 50 largest consuming countries:
- USA
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
+ the largest producing countries
Data coverage:
- Global market volume and value
- Per Capita consumption
- Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
- Global production, split by region and country
- Global trade (exports and imports)
- Export and import prices
- Market trends, drivers and restraints
- Key market players and their profiles
Company coverage:
Reasons to buy this report:
- Take advantage of the latest data
- Find deeper insights into current market developments
- Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.
In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
- How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
- How to load your idle production capacity
- How to boost your sales on overseas markets
- How to increase your profit margins
- How to make your supply chain more sustainable
- How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
- How to outsource production to other countries
- How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
- HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2023
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Market Value, 2012–2023
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
- Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Market Value, 2012–2023
- Consumption, By Country, 2023
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Yield And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Area Harvested, 2012–2023
- Yield, 2012–2023
- Production, By Country, 2023
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2023
- Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
- Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
- Export Prices, 2012–2023