Global Roasted Coffee Market to Expand at CAGR of +3.7% Over Next Seven Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The demand for roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) is on the rise globally, leading to an anticipated growth trend in the market. With a projected CAGR of +3.7% in volume and +5.8% in value from 2023 to 2030, the market is expected to reach 20M tons and $171.6B by the end of the forecast period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $171.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

In 2023, the amount of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) consumed worldwide amounted to 16M tons, stabilizing at the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 16M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global non-decaffeinated roasted coffee market size contracted modestly to $115.5B in 2023, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $123.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (3.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee consumption, accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.6M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.3M tons), with an 8.3% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +4.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+7.7% per year) and India (+4.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($24.7B), the United States ($13B) and Japan ($8.8B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, with a combined 40% share of the global market. Bangladesh, India, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Italy, Mexico, Indonesia, Germany and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Saudi Arabia, with a CAGR of +10.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee per capita consumption in 2023 were Canada (7.6 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (6.6 kg per person) and Italy (5.2 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +7.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

In 2023, approx. 16M tons of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) were produced worldwide; leveling off at the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 11%. Global production peaked at 16M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production declined slightly to $111.6B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $123.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production was China (3.3M tons), accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.6M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.3M tons), with an 8.3% share.

In China, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production expanded at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+7.1% per year) and India (+4.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

In 2023, after three years of growth, there was decline in purchases abroad of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), when their volume decreased by -2.4% to 1.3M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 1.3M tons in 2022, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee imports rose rapidly to $14.9B in 2023. In general, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +80.5% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee imports in 2023 were France (146K tons), the United States (107K tons), Germany (99K tons), Poland (73K tons), the Netherlands (73K tons), Canada (70K tons), the UK (48K tons), Austria (48K tons), Romania (40K tons), Belgium (40K tons), the Czech Republic (39K tons) and Russia (34K tons), together reaching 62% of total import. Slovakia (31K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($2.3B), the United States ($1.9B) and Germany ($950M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together comprising 35% of global imports.

The United States, with a CAGR of +12.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average non-decaffeinated roasted coffee import price amounted to $11,298 per ton, increasing by 9.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($18,274 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,779 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

After ten years of growth, overseas shipments of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) decreased by -3% to 1.3M tons in 2023. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 9.5%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 1.3M tons in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee exports expanded notably to $14.8B in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +69.7% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Italy (286K tons) and Germany (238K tons) represented the major exporters of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated)across the globe, together making up 41% of total exports. The Netherlands (92K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 7.2% share, followed by Switzerland (7.2%), the United States (6.1%) and Poland (5.2%). France (52K tons), Canada (48K tons), Belgium (36K tons), the Czech Republic (24K tons), Spain (24K tons), Sweden (21K tons) and Slovakia (21K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Switzerland ($3.4B), Italy ($2.5B) and Germany ($2.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, together accounting for 54% of global exports. France, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Poland, Belgium, Spain, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Slovakia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +11.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average non-decaffeinated roasted coffee export price amounted to $11,598 per ton, growing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($36,440 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,917 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform