Global Orange Market to Reach 88M Tons and $76.2B by 2030

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The global orange market is poised for significant growth over the next seven years, with a forecasted increase in consumption and market performance. By 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 88 million tons, while the market value is projected to grow to $76.2 billion.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for oranges worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 88M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $76.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oranges

In 2023, after two years of decline, there was growth in consumption of oranges, when its volume increased by 0.8% to 77M tons. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 3.4%. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

The global orange market value declined to $56.4B in 2023, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $59.2B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Brazil (17M tons), India (10M tons) and China (7.7M tons), with a combined 45% share of global consumption. Mexico, the United States, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Spain, Italy, Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($10.6B), Brazil ($6.6B) and the United States ($4.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together comprising 39% of the global market. India, Mexico, Spain, Egypt, Italy, Iran, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +17.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of orange per capita consumption in 2023 were Brazil (77 kg per person), Spain (46 kg per person) and Mexico (35 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +11.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Oranges

In 2023, the amount of oranges produced worldwide contracted modestly to 77M tons, stabilizing at 2022 figures. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 77M tons in 2022, and then contracted modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, orange production amounted to $69B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a temperate expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production decreased by -3.0% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $71.1B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Brazil (17M tons), India (10M tons) and China (7.6M tons), with a combined 45% share of global production. Mexico, the United States, Egypt, Spain, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Vietnam, South Africa and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +12.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average orange yield declined to 19 tons per ha in 2023, approximately equating the previous year's figure. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 2.5%. Over the period under review, the average orange yield reached the maximum level at 20 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the global orange harvested area amounted to 4M ha, flattening at 2022 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to orange production attained the peak figure at 4.1M ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Oranges

In 2023, supplies from abroad of oranges was finally on the rise to reach 6.6M tons after two years of decline. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 7.3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, orange imports skyrocketed to $6.1B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 18% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $6.2B. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The Netherlands (602K tons), France (432K tons), Germany (415K tons), Russia (342K tons), Spain (235K tons), Bangladesh (227K tons), the United States (212K tons), the UK (211K tons), Saudi Arabia (209K tons), China (205K tons), Iraq (191K tons) and Italy (187K tons) represented roughly 53% of total imports in 2023. Canada (179K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +15.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($632M), France ($500M) and Germany ($496M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 27% share of global imports. Russia, Canada, the United States, China, Spain, the UK, Italy, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Among the main importing countries, Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +21.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average orange import price amounted to $928 per ton, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,248 per ton), while Iraq ($373 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Oranges

In 2023, global exports of oranges contracted to 5.9M tons, which is down by -8.6% on 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 2%. The global exports peaked at 7.4M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, orange exports expanded markedly to $5.5B in 2023. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $5.7B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Spain (1.3M tons) and South Africa (1.2M tons) were the key exporters of orangesin the world, together making up 42% of total exports. Egypt (736K tons) held a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (6.3%), Greece (6%) and the United States (5.9%). The following exporters - Turkey (215K tons), Australia (154K tons), Portugal (127K tons), Italy (108K tons) and Pakistan (104K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +30.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest orange supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($1.3B), Egypt ($799M) and South Africa ($791M), together accounting for 54% of global exports. The United States, the Netherlands, Greece, Australia, Italy, Portugal, Turkey and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Portugal, with a CAGR of +8.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average orange export price stood at $925 per ton in 2023, growing by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,488 per ton), while Pakistan ($55 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Egypt (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform