Worldwide Refined Maize Oil Market: Volume to Reach 7.9M Tons and Value to Hit $17.9B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Refined Maize (Corn) Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Driven by rising global demand for refined maize oil, the market is expected to see a slight increase in performance, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.7% in volume and +4.9% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth trend is anticipated to continue over the next seven years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for refined maize oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $17.9B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2023, the amount of refined maize (corn) oil consumed worldwide dropped modestly to 6.5M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, consumption saw a slight contraction. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 8.5M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global refined maize oil market revenue totaled $12.9B in 2023, picking up by 2.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a slight reduction. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $14.7B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.2M tons) remains the largest refined maize oil consuming country worldwide, accounting for 19% of total volume. Moreover, refined maize oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (491K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (456K tons), with a 7% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +2.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.5% per year) and the United States (-3.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.9B), India ($1.9B) and the United States ($639M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, with a combined 35% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +3.8%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of refined maize oil per capita consumption in 2023 were Turkey (1,379 kg per 1000 persons), Russia (1,368 kg per 1000 persons) and the United States (1,351 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +1.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

Global refined maize oil production contracted slightly to 6.5M tons in 2023, flattening at the year before. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a slight decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 8.5M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined maize oil production stood at $13.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a mild setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $14.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (1.2M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of refined maize oil production, accounting for 19% of total volume. Moreover, refined maize oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (492K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (481K tons), with a 7.4% share.

In China, refined maize oil production increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.5% per year) and the United States (-5.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2023, global imports of refined maize (corn) oil was estimated at 281K tons, surging by 8.2% on 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 511K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, refined maize oil imports contracted slightly to $529M in 2023. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 38%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $746M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Libya (59K tons), distantly followed by the United States (28K tons), Kuwait (22K tons) and Tunisia (21K tons) represented the largest importers of refined maize (corn) oil, together mixing up 46% of total imports. The United Arab Emirates (13K tons), Jordan (10K tons), Canada (9.9K tons), Azerbaijan (9.4K tons), Qatar (7.2K tons), Saudi Arabia (7K tons), Oman (6.4K tons), Israel (6.1K tons) and Greece (6.1K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

Imports into Libya decreased at an average annual rate of -4.7% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Oman (+25.8%), Azerbaijan (+19.7%), Qatar (+5.6%) and the United States (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Oman emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.8% from 2013-2023. Tunisia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates (-1.5%), Israel (-3.5%), Jordan (-3.8%), Kuwait (-4.3%), Canada (-5.1%), Saudi Arabia (-5.9%) and Greece (-8.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+5.5 p.p.), Azerbaijan (+3 p.p.), Tunisia (+2.5 p.p.), Oman (+2.1 p.p.) and Qatar (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Libya ($111M) constitutes the largest market for imported refined maize (corn) oil worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($51M), with a 9.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Kuwait, with a 7.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Libya amounted to -2.1%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United States (+6.8% per year) and Kuwait (-2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average refined maize oil import price amounted to $1,882 per ton, with a decrease of -8.2% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, refined maize oil import price increased by +57.4% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 34%. Global import price peaked at $2,051 per ton in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Israel ($2,155 per ton), while Tunisia ($1,297 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Maize (Corn) Oil

In 2023, the amount of refined maize (corn) oil exported worldwide fell modestly to 283K tons, waning by -3.1% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, exports saw a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 489K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined maize oil exports shrank sharply to $546M in 2023. In general, exports recorded a perceptible descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $720M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Turkey (55K tons) and the United States (54K tons) were the key exporters of refined maize (corn) oilaround the world, together resulting at near 38% of total exports. Belgium (25K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with an 8.8% share, followed by Tunisia (7.3%), Saudi Arabia (6.9%), Canada (6.7%) and Italy (4.6%). China (8.5K tons), Russia (7.3K tons), Egypt (6.7K tons), South Korea (5.7K tons), South Africa (5.4K tons) and Oman (4.3K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for South Africa (with a CAGR of +27.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($97M), Turkey ($91M) and Belgium ($50M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, together accounting for 44% of global exports. Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Canada, Italy, China, Egypt, Russia, South Korea, Oman and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

Among the main exporting countries, South Africa, with a CAGR of +31.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average refined maize oil export price stood at $1,930 per ton in 2023, dropping by -12.4% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated slight growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, refined maize oil export price increased by +57.2% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 28%. The global export price peaked at $2,203 per ton in 2022, and then shrank in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($2,548 per ton), while Russia ($1,504 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform