Global Watermelon Market: Anticipated CAGR of +1.6% Expected to Drive Market to 115M Tons by 2030

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The global watermelon market is poised for significant growth, driven by rising demand worldwide. Market performance is forecasted to accelerate with a CAGR of +1.6% in volume and +3.4% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 115M tons with a market value of $99.5B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for watermelons worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 115M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $99.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Watermelons

In 2023, the amount of watermelons consumed worldwide was estimated at 102M tons, picking up by 1.5% compared with the year before. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 2.1%. Global consumption peaked at 106M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global watermelon market revenue reduced to $78.5B in 2023, with a decrease of -5.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by +14.9% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $83.3B in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of watermelon consumption was China (60M tons), accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, watermelon consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (3.3M tons), more than tenfold. India (3.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.1% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (-1.6% per year) and India (+6.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($58.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($1.5B). It was followed by Algeria.

In China, the watermelon market increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.2% per year) and Algeria (+4.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of watermelon per capita consumption in 2023 were Senegal (85 kg per person), Algeria (44 kg per person) and China (42 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Senegal (with a CAGR of +25.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Watermelons

In 2023, approx. 104M tons of watermelons were produced worldwide; with an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 2.7%. Global production peaked at 107M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a modest increase in yield figures.

In value terms, watermelon production dropped to $78.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +15.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 44%. Global production peaked at $83.5B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of watermelon production was China (60M tons), comprising approx. 58% of total volume. Moreover, watermelon production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Turkey (3.4M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (3.3M tons), with a 3.1% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (-1.2% per year) and India (+6.3% per year).

Yield

The global average watermelon yield rose slightly to 35 tons per ha in 2023, picking up by 1.6% on 2022. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 5%. The global yield peaked at 36 tons per ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the total area harvested in terms of watermelons production worldwide totaled 2.9M ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2022 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the harvested area increased by 0.8% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 3.2M ha. From 2017 to 2023, the growth of the global watermelon harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Watermelons

In 2023, the amount of watermelons imported worldwide amounted to 5M tons, picking up by 11% on 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a slight contraction. Global imports peaked at 7.9M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, watermelon imports rose significantly to $3.1B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 19%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $3.8B. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the United States (821K tons), followed by Canada (485K tons), Germany (447K tons), the UK (328K tons) and France (271K tons) represented the key importers of watermelons, together committing 47% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (181K tons), Poland (176K tons), the United Arab Emirates (134K tons), Spain (121K tons), Oman (92K tons), the Czech Republic (87K tons), Turkey (87K tons) and El Salvador (82K tons) - together made up 19% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Oman (with a CAGR of +26.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest watermelon importing markets worldwide were the United States ($440M), Germany ($368M) and Canada ($321M), together accounting for 37% of global imports. The UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the Czech Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Turkey and El Salvador lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main importing countries, Oman, with a CAGR of +20.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average watermelon import price amounted to $612 per ton, increasing by 2.1% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 27% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($915 per ton), while El Salvador ($91 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Watermelons

In 2023, after three years of decline, there was significant growth in overseas shipments of watermelons, when their volume increased by 23% to 7M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 28% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 8.9M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, watermelon exports skyrocketed to $3.6B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The global exports peaked at $4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Mexico (1.5M tons) and Iran (1.1M tons) represented roughly 36% of total exports in 2023. Spain (680K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Morocco (452K tons). All these countries together held near 16% share of total exports. The following exporters - Guatemala (290K tons), Italy (249K tons), the United States (243K tons), Lao People's Democratic Republic (235K tons), Brazil (228K tons), Turkey (217K tons), Uzbekistan (209K tons), the Netherlands (171K tons) and Greece (167K tons) - together made up 29% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +142.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($751M), Spain ($566M) and Morocco ($350M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, together accounting for 47% of global exports. Iran, Italy, the United States, Brazil, the Netherlands, Guatemala, Greece, Turkey, Uzbekistan and Lao People's Democratic Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +150.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average watermelon export price stood at $508 per ton in 2023, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $510 per ton, leveling off in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($864 per ton), while Iran ($213 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+7.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform