Global Wheat Market: Market Volume Expected to Grow at 1.7% CAGR Until 2030

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Driven by global demand, the wheat market is expected to see continued growth, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +3.7% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth trend is projected to bring the market volume to 890M tons and the market value to $343.8B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wheat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 890M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $343.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Wheat

After two years of growth, consumption of wheat decreased by less than 0.1% to 793M tons in 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 4.6% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 793M tons, leveling off in the following year.

The global wheat market value expanded slightly to $266.3B in 2023, picking up by 3.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (149M tons), India (102M tons) and Russia (70M tons), with a combined 40% share of global consumption. Pakistan, the United States, Turkey, France, Germany, Egypt, Spain, Argentina, the UK and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Argentina (with a CAGR of +11.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat markets worldwide were China ($54.6B), India ($28.1B) and Russia ($20.6B), together comprising 39% of the global market. Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, the United States, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, the UK and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Among the main consuming countries, Argentina, with a CAGR of +9.0%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2023 were Russia (485 kg per person), Argentina (366 kg per person) and Spain (361 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Argentina (with a CAGR of +10.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Wheat

After two years of growth, production of wheat decreased by -2.2% to 790M tons in 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 4.5%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 808M tons, and then shrank in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by mild growth of the harvested area and a slight increase in yield figures.

In value terms, wheat production totaled $262.8B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $284.4B. From 2022 to 2023, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (137M tons), India (109M tons) and Russia (90M tons), together comprising 43% of global production. The United States, France, Australia, Canada, Pakistan, Ukraine, Germany, Argentina, Turkey and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +9.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average wheat yield declined modestly to 3.6 tons per ha in 2023, falling by -2.5% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 5.3%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 3.7 tons per ha, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2023, approx. 220M ha of wheat were harvested worldwide; approximately reflecting the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 2.2% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 223M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Wheat

In 2023, supplies from abroad of wheat was finally on the rise to reach 196M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, wheat imports dropped to $68.5B in 2023. In general, total imports indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +68.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $70.1B in 2022, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Turkey (12M tons), China (11M tons), Indonesia (10M tons), Spain (9.6M tons), Egypt (9.2M tons), Italy (8.7M tons), Algeria (7.3M tons), the Philippines (6.2M tons), Bangladesh (5.6M tons), Morocco (5.6M tons), Germany (5.1M tons) and Japan (5.1M tons) represented the largest importer of wheat in the world, comprising 49% of total import. South Korea (4.4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +17.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were China ($4.1B), Egypt ($3.8B) and Turkey ($3.5B), together accounting for 17% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Egypt, with a CAGR of +18.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average wheat import price stood at $350 per ton in 2023, falling by -14.5% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 27% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $409 per ton in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Egypt ($412 per ton) and Japan ($386 per ton), while Turkey ($297 per ton) and Indonesia ($298 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Wheat

Global wheat exports expanded to 194M tons in 2023, picking up by 4% against 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 194M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat exports declined to $59.7B in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a noticeable increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +56.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 27%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $66.9B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

Australia (29M tons), Canada (26M tons), Russia (21M tons), the United States (18M tons), Ukraine (16M tons) and France (13M tons) represented roughly 64% of total exports in 2023. Romania (8.1M tons), Poland (6.9M tons), India (6.7M tons), Germany (6.6M tons), Bulgaria (6.3M tons), Kazakhstan (6M tons) and Lithuania (3.7M tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +15.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat supplying countries worldwide were Australia ($9.3B), Canada ($8.8B) and Russia ($7.1B), with a combined 42% share of global exports. The United States, France, Ukraine, Romania, India, Poland, Germany, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +17.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average wheat export price stood at $308 per ton in 2023, dropping by -14.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average export price increased by 24%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $359 per ton, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($346 per ton), while Ukraine ($182 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bulgaria (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform