Global Window or Wall Air Conditioning Systems Market: Increasing Demand to Drive Growth with +2.4% CAGR from 2023 to 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Window Or Wall Air Conditioning Systems, Self-Contained Or Split-Systems - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Driven by increasing demand, the market for air conditioning systems is expected to grow at a CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.6% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of the forecast period, the market volume is predicted to reach 97 million units, with a market value of $27.8 billion (in nominal wholesale prices).

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 97M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $27.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Window or Wall Air Conditioning Systems, Self-Contained or Split-Systems

In 2023, after seven years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems, when its volume decreased by -6.8% to 82M units. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 88M units in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

The size of the market for window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems worldwide shrank to $20.2B in 2023, dropping by -7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $21.9B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (10M units), the United States (7M units) and Vietnam (4.8M units), together comprising 27% of global consumption. India, Russia, Japan, Mexico, Thailand, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, the Philippines, Turkey and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +20.1%), while split-systems for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest window, wall, or split air conditioning system markets worldwide were China ($2.1B), India ($1.4B) and the United States ($1.1B), together comprising 23% of the global market. Japan, Vietnam, Iraq, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Italy and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +15.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while split-systems for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of per capita consumption of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems was registered in the United Arab Emirates (253 units per 1000 persons), followed by Iraq (60 units per 1000 persons), Vietnam (48 units per 1000 persons) and Thailand (47 units per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of window, wall, or split air conditioning system was estimated at 10 units per 1000 persons.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the per capita consumption of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems in the United Arab Emirates totaled +6.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Iraq (+3.9% per year) and Vietnam (+11.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Window or Wall Air Conditioning Systems, Self-Contained or Split-Systems

In 2023, production of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems decreased by -3.2% to 100M units for the first time since 2017, thus ending a five-year rising trend. Overall, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production of attained the peak volume at 104M units in 2022, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

In value terms, production of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems reduced to $22.4B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +57.0% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $23.9B in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of production of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems was China (68M units), accounting for 68% of total volume. Moreover, production of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Thailand (19M units), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (4.1M units), with a 4.1% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +3.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Thailand (+9.2% per year) and India (+10.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Window or Wall Air Conditioning Systems, Self-Contained or Split-Systems

After three years of growth, overseas purchases of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems decreased by -4% to 68M units in 2023. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global imports of reached the maximum at 71M units in 2022, and then fell slightly in the following year.

In value terms, imports of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems dropped to $16.7B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 13%. Global imports peaked at $17.6B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the United States (7.3M units), followed by Vietnam (4.8M units), Japan (4.1M units), Mexico (3.6M units) and Russia (3.5M units) were the largest importers of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems, together making up 34% of total imports. The following importers - the United Arab Emirates (2.7M units), Iraq (2.6M units), the Philippines (2.4M units), Malaysia (2.3M units), Italy (2M units), Spain (1.7M units), Saudi Arabia (1.6M units) and South Korea (1.4M units) - together made up 25% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +21.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.1B), Japan ($1.1B) and Iraq ($766M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together comprising 18% of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Mexico, Italy, Russia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, South Korea and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +17.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average import price for window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems amounted to $245 per unit, reducing by -1.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 3.3%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $269 per unit in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($326 per unit), while Malaysia ($91 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+0.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Window or Wall Air Conditioning Systems, Self-Contained or Split-Systems

After five years of growth, shipments abroad of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems decreased by -0.2% to 86M units in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a temperate expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +84.2% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 44% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 87M units in 2022, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, exports of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems declined modestly to $19.1B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $19.8B in 2022, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, China (58M units) was the largest exporter of window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems, generating 67% of total exports. Thailand (17M units) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Malaysia (5.4M units). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to window, wall, or split air conditioning system exports from China stood at +4.1%. At the same time, Thailand (+8.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Thailand emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.4% from 2013-2023. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Thailand (+7.1 p.p.) and China (+2.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Malaysia saw its share reduced by -2% from 2013 to 2023, respectively.

In value terms, China ($11.4B) remains the largest window, wall, or split air conditioning system supplier worldwide, comprising 60% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Thailand ($4.2B), with a 22% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +3.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Thailand (+5.7% per year) and Malaysia (-1.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average export price for window or wall air conditioning systems, self-contained or split-systems amounted to $220 per unit, which is down by -3.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $300 per unit in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($248 per unit), while Malaysia ($150 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (-0.9%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform