Barley Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global barley market, highlighting consumption trends, production patterns, imports, and exports. It forecasts a positive outlook for the market with increases in both volume and value by 2030. Key insights include the top consuming countries, such as Russia and China, as well as top producing countries like Australia and France. The report also delves into import and export trends, showcasing fluctuations in prices and volumes over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for barley worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 165M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $56.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Barley

In 2022, consumption of barley was finally on the rise to reach 151M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 157M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global barley market value reduced slightly to $42.3B in 2022, declining by -2.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $46.5B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Russia (22M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of barley consumption, comprising approx. 15% of total volume. Moreover, barley consumption in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (9.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Germany (9.7M tons), with a 6.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Russia amounted to +6.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (+3.3% per year) and Germany (-0.6% per year).

In value terms, Russia ($4.8B), Iran ($3B) and Spain ($2.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 25% of the global market. China, Germany, Turkey, Canada, the UK, Australia, France, the United States, Ukraine and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

China, with a CAGR of +7.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of barley per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (630 kg per person), followed by Australia (243 kg per person), Canada (208 kg per person) and Spain (174 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of barley was estimated at 19 kg per person.

In Denmark, barley per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Australia (+5.9% per year) and Canada (+1.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Barley

In 2022, production of barley increased by 6.8% to 155M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 156M tons. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest expansion of the harvested area and tangible growth in yield figures.

In value terms, barley production fell to $43.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a slight downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 19%. Global production peaked at $49.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Russia (23M tons), Australia (14M tons) and France (11M tons), with a combined 32% share of global production. Germany, Canada, Turkey, the UK, Spain, Ukraine, Argentina, Denmark, the United States and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average barley yield expanded significantly to 3.3 tons per ha in 2022, surging by 13% against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the yield attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of barley dropped to 47M ha, reducing by -5.2% on the previous year's figure. In general, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 5.3% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 52M ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Barley

In 2022, overseas purchases of barley decreased by -32.5% to 29M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 43M tons in 2021, and then dropped sharply in the following year.

In value terms, barley imports dropped to $9.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 43%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $11.4B, and then contracted in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (5.8M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (2.4M tons), Belgium (1.9M tons), Turkey (1.6M tons), Germany (1.6M tons) and Spain (1.3M tons) represented the main importers of barley, together achieving 50% of total imports. The following importers - Jordan (1,265K tons), Japan (1,236K tons), Iran (1,152K tons), Morocco (817K tons), Tunisia (718K tons), Italy (710K tons) and Brazil (659K tons) - together made up 23% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +8.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Turkey (+35.4%), Spain (+17.1%), Tunisia (+14.8%), Brazil (+11.1%), Jordan (+5.5%), the Netherlands (+4.0%), Morocco (+4.0%), Italy (+3.6%) and Germany (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +35.4% from 2012-2022. Belgium and Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Iran (-3.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+11 p.p.), Turkey (+5.2 p.p.), Spain (+3.6 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.3 p.p.), Tunisia (+1.8 p.p.) and Jordan (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Iran saw its share reduced by -1.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported barley worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($746M), with a 7.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 6.3% share.

In China, barley imports increased at an average annual rate of +10.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the Netherlands (+5.1% per year) and Belgium (+1.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average barley import price stood at $338 per ton in 2022, surging by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, barley import price increased by +57.3% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Brazil ($405 per ton) and Tunisia ($392 per ton), while Italy ($278 per ton) and the Netherlands ($310 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Jordan (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Barley

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of barley, when their volume decreased by -23.8% to 33M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 43M tons, and then contracted significantly in the following year.

In value terms, barley exports dropped modestly to $10.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +50.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $10.6B, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Australia (8M tons) and France (5.6M tons) represented roughly 41% of total exports in 2022. Argentina (3.7M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Germany (3.1M tons), Ukraine (2.1M tons) and Canada (2.1M tons). All these countries together took approx. 33% share of total exports. The following exporters - Romania (1,350K tons), Russia (1,147K tons), Kazakhstan (836K tons), the UK (636K tons), Denmark (629K tons) and Hungary (530K tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($2.3B), France ($1.8B) and Argentina ($1.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 51% of global exports. Germany, Canada, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, Kazakhstan, Denmark and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Kazakhstan, with a CAGR of +11.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average barley export price amounted to $312 per ton, rising by 28% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, barley export price increased by +55.4% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($486 per ton), while Ukraine ($208 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform