Natural Bitumen and Asphalt Market

The global natural bitumen and asphalt market is projected to see growth in both consumption and value terms over the next eight years. Consumption declined in 2022, but is expected to increase with a CAGR of +1.5% by 2030. The largest consuming countries were Venezuela, Canada, and Kazakhstan. Production also decreased in 2022, with Uzbekistan dominating exports. Import prices varied significantly among countries, with the United States, Turkey, and Spain leading in exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for natural bitumen and asphalt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 641M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $296.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Natural Bitumen and Asphalt

In 2022, the amount of natural bitumen and asphalt consumed worldwide declined to 568M tons, with a decrease of -4.4% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 594M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

The global natural bitumen and asphalt market value contracted to $262.9B in 2022, falling by -5.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $323.8B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Venezuela (226M tons), Canada (214M tons) and Kazakhstan (49M tons), together accounting for 86% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +5.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest natural bitumen and asphalt markets worldwide were Venezuela ($95.1B), Canada ($89.1B) and Russia ($37.5B), with a combined 84% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Kazakhstan, which accounted for a further 5.1%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Kazakhstan, with a CAGR of +6.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of natural bitumen and asphalt per capita consumption in 2022 were Venezuela (7.7 ton per person), Canada (5.5 ton per person) and Kazakhstan (2.6 ton per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +3.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Natural Bitumen and Asphalt

In 2022, global production of natural bitumen and asphalt contracted to 572M tons, with a decrease of -3.7% compared with 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 594M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, natural bitumen and asphalt production reduced to $260.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 20%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $337.6B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Venezuela (226M tons), Canada (214M tons) and Kazakhstan (49M tons), with a combined 85% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +5.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Natural Bitumen and Asphalt

In 2022, approx. 1.9M tons of natural bitumen and asphalt were imported worldwide; shrinking by -22.3% on 2021. In general, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2.4M tons, and then shrank rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, natural bitumen and asphalt imports reduced to $788M in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a slight descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 51%. Global imports peaked at $1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of natural bitumen and asphalt imports in 2022 were the United States (294K tons), France (276K tons) and China (236K tons), together recording 43% of total import. It was distantly followed by the Philippines (143K tons) and Canada (128K tons), together comprising a 15% share of total imports. Costa Rica (80K tons), Cambodia (72K tons), Denmark (60K tons), Myanmar (55K tons), Vietnam (52K tons), Ireland (34K tons), Austria (31K tons) and Ethiopia (29K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Austria (with a CAGR of +33.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest natural bitumen and asphalt importing markets worldwide were France ($153M), the Philippines ($82M) and Canada ($78M), together comprising 40% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +17.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average natural bitumen and asphalt import price amounted to $423 per ton, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a mild contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $538 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($659 per ton), while Austria ($130 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+6.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Natural Bitumen and Asphalt

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of natural bitumen and asphalt, which increased by 154% to 5.8M tons in 2022. Overall, exports recorded a remarkable increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, natural bitumen and asphalt exports dropped significantly to $776M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Uzbekistan dominates exports structure, amounting to 3.9M tons, which was approx. 67% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the United States (299K tons), committing a 5.2% share of total exports. Spain (202K tons), Turkey (173K tons), the United Arab Emirates (170K tons), Bahrain (137K tons), Italy (125K tons), Belgium (121K tons), Indonesia (114K tons) and Canada (96K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Uzbekistan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of natural bitumen and asphalt. At the same time, Turkey (+72.6%), Bahrain (+39.4%), Italy (+20.1%), Spain (+13.9%), the United Arab Emirates (+3.2%) and Canada (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +72.6% from 2012-2022. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belgium (-3.6%) and Indonesia (-13.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Uzbekistan, Turkey and Bahrain increased by +67, +3 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest natural bitumen and asphalt supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($156M), Turkey ($88M) and Spain ($87M), together comprising 43% of global exports.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +66.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average natural bitumen and asphalt export price stood at $134 per ton in 2022, waning by -67.9% against the previous year. Overall, the export price faced a drastic downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 34% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $488 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($663 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($0.6 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform