Corrugated Paper Market

The global corrugated paper market is expected to show an upward consumption trend over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.4% in value from 2022 to 2030. China, Japan, and the United States lead in consumption, while Germany, the United States, and France dominate in exports. Key insights include fluctuations in consumption and production, growth in import prices, and rising export values.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for corrugated paper worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 64M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $91.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Corrugated Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, the amount of corrugated paper and paperboard consumed worldwide reduced slightly to 53M tons, dropping by -3.2% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 57M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global corrugated paper market revenue dropped modestly to $64.7B in 2022, with a decrease of -4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $67.5B, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (8.4M tons), Japan (5M tons) and the United States (4.4M tons), together accounting for 34% of global consumption. Italy, Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Germany, Pakistan, Canada, Poland, Bangladesh and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +6.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($16.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($6.4B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +4.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-9.5% per year) and the United States (+5.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of corrugated paper per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (59 kg per person), Japan (40 kg per person) and Poland (30 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Corrugated Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, the amount of corrugated paper and paperboard produced worldwide declined slightly to 53M tons, dropping by -3% against the previous year's figure. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 57M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, corrugated paper production dropped modestly to $67.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +15.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 21%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $70.6B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (8.4M tons), Japan (5M tons) and the United States (4.8M tons), with a combined 34% share of global production. Italy, Germany, Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Poland, Bangladesh, Spain and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +6.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Corrugated Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, approx. 1.5M tons of corrugated paper and paperboard were imported worldwide; shrinking by -11.2% on 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 1.7M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, corrugated paper imports expanded slightly to $1.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +38.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Mexico (240K tons), Poland (170K tons), Canada (154K tons), the Netherlands (114K tons), Belgium (92K tons), Austria (83K tons), Hungary (70K tons), the Czech Republic (67K tons), Slovakia (61K tons), Germany (55K tons) and France (44K tons) was the key importer of corrugated paper and paperboard in the world, generating 74% of total import. The United States (26K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +21.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest corrugated paper importing markets worldwide were Mexico ($334M), Canada ($227M) and Poland ($157M), together comprising 37% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +25.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average corrugated paper import price stood at $1,252 per ton in 2022, growing by 16% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 18%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,016 per ton), while Poland ($920 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Corrugated Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, global exports of corrugated paper and paperboard contracted to 1.5M tons, with a decrease of -7.4% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 14%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.7M tons, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, corrugated paper exports expanded slightly to $1.9B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +36.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Germany (415K tons) and the United States (376K tons) represented the main exporters of corrugated paper and paperboard in 2022, amounting to near 27% and 24% of total exports, respectively. France (92K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 5.9% share, followed by Poland (5.2%) and the Czech Republic (5.2%). The following exporters - Denmark (41K tons), Belgium (32K tons), the Netherlands (31K tons), Spain (30K tons), China (29K tons), the UK (28K tons), Croatia (24K tons) and Ireland (24K tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Germany (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($536M), Germany ($487M) and France ($112M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 59% of global exports.

Germany, with a CAGR of +10.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average corrugated paper export price stood at $1,239 per ton in 2022, increasing by 13% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 15%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($2,138 per ton), while Ireland ($256 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark (+8.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform