Crude Oil Market

The global crude petroleum oil market is projected to see positive growth in consumption, production, exports, and imports over the period from 2022 to 2030. Key highlights include forecasts of market volume reaching 5,823M tons by 2030 and market value hitting $3,654.3B in nominal prices by the same year. Top consuming and producing countries, as well as key trends in price and consumption patterns, are detailed in the report. The article provides valuable insights for industry professionals and decision-makers looking to understand and navigate the evolving market landscape.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for crude petroleum oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5,823M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3,654.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Petroleum Oil

In 2022, consumption of crude petroleum oil was finally on the rise to reach 4,905M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 4,998M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global crude oil market revenue surged to $2,590B in 2022, jumping by 17% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a slight decrease. Global consumption peaked at $2,987.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (851M tons), China (700M tons) and Saudi Arabia (529M tons), with a combined 42% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +11.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude oil markets worldwide were China ($456.3B), the United States ($368.1B) and Saudi Arabia ($236.8B), together accounting for 41% of the global market.

Saudi Arabia, with a CAGR of +7.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of crude oil per capita consumption was registered in Saudi Arabia (15 ton per person), followed by Canada (2.6 ton per person), the United States (2.5 ton per person) and Japan (1.1 ton per person), while the world average per capita consumption of crude oil was estimated at less than 0.1 ton per person.

In Saudi Arabia, crude oil per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +9.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Canada (-0.8% per year) and the United States (-0.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Crude Petroleum Oil

In 2022, production of crude petroleum oil increased by 0.7% to 4,478M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 3.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 4,632M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, crude oil production dropped to $1,556.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a abrupt descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 31%. Global production peaked at $3,204.8B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (722M tons), Russia (537M tons) and Saudi Arabia (529M tons), with a combined 40% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Crude Petroleum Oil

In 2022, overseas purchases of crude petroleum oil increased by 5.2% to 2,279M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 2,292M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude oil imports surged to $1,615.9B in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 54%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $1,736.8B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (508M tons), distantly followed by the United States (307M tons), India (244M tons), South Korea (136M tons) and Japan (134M tons) represented the key importers of crude petroleum oil, together constituting 58% of total imports. The Netherlands (95M tons), Germany (86M tons), Spain (65M tons), Italy (62M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (62M tons), Thailand (53M tons), the UK (52M tons) and Singapore (44M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +6.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($365.5B), the United States ($198.3B) and India ($173.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 46% share of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +5.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average crude oil import price amounted to $709 per ton, jumping by 42% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $783 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($778 per ton), while Taiwan (Chinese) ($505 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (-0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Petroleum Oil

In 2022, approx. 1,852M tons of crude petroleum oil were exported worldwide; which is down by -9.2% against 2021. In general, exports continue to indicate a slight shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 24%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 2,096M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude oil exports soared to $1,197B in 2022. Overall, exports saw a pronounced slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 82% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at $1,586.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (229M tons), Russia (226M tons), Canada (178M tons), the United States (178M tons) and Iraq (160M tons) was the major exporter of crude petroleum oil in the world, comprising 52% of total export. It was followed by Kuwait (101M tons), mixing up a 5.4% share of total exports. Norway (78M tons), Brazil (69M tons), Kazakhstan (65M tons), Angola (63M tons), Nigeria (60M tons), Mexico (47M tons) and Oman (45M tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +47.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($154.5B), Russia ($147.5B) and Canada ($120.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 35% share of global exports. The United States, Kuwait, Iraq, Norway, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, Mexico and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 46%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +46.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average crude oil export price stood at $646 per ton in 2022, rising by 32% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a slight curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 47%. The global export price peaked at $779 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($831 per ton), while Iraq ($399 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform