Fresh Pork Carcase Market

The article analyzes the global market for fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, forecasting a positive growth trend in both consumption and production over the next eight years. Market performance is expected to accelerate with a projected CAGR of +2.6% in volume and +4.0% in value terms from 2022 to 2030. Detailed insights are provided on consumption and production trends, key importing and exporting countries, and changes in import and export prices over the period from 2012 to 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 42M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $125.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2022, consumption of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -2.3% to 35M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 37M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global fresh pork carcase market revenue was estimated at $91.9B in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (3.6M tons), Russia (3.1M tons) and Germany (3M tons), together accounting for 28% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +7.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($10.1B), Brazil ($8.1B) and Russia ($8B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 29% of the global market.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +10.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of fresh pork carcase per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (50 kg per person), Germany (36 kg per person) and Russia (21 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2022, production of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -2.2% to 34M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 37M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase production expanded slightly to $87.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 17%. Global production peaked at $89.5B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (3.6M tons), Russia (3.1M tons) and Germany (2.7M tons), together comprising 27% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

Global fresh pork carcase imports reduced to 1.2M tons in 2022, with a decrease of -5.9% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.3M tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase imports rose to $2.4B in 2022. Overall, imports showed a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 14%. Global imports peaked at $3B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (386K tons) represented the main importer of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, creating 32% of total imports. Poland (180K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Italy (148K tons), the Netherlands (67K tons), Greece (60K tons) and Romania (58K tons). All these countries together took approx. 43% share of total imports. Slovakia (43K tons), the Czech Republic (41K tons), Austria (31K tons), Lithuania (19K tons) and France (18K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat. At the same time, France (+14.6%), the Netherlands (+13.4%), Romania (+9.2%), Slovakia (+9.1%) and Poland (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, France emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +14.6% from 2012-2022. Italy and the Czech Republic experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Lithuania (-2.5%), Austria (-3.9%) and Greece (-4.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia and Poland increased by +4, +2.8, +2.1 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($670M), Poland ($374M) and Italy ($345M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 57% of global imports. Greece, Romania, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Lithuania and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +9.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fresh pork carcase import price amounted to $2,013 per ton, rising by 8.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,431 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Greece ($2,431 per ton), while France ($1,492 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania (+0.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2022, approx. 1.1M tons of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat were exported worldwide; which is down by -2.1% on 2021. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.2M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase exports expanded markedly to $2.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a noticeable slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $2.9B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Belgium represented the key exporter of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 427K tons, which was near 39% of total exports in 2022. Germany (159K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by France (85K tons), the Netherlands (84K tons), Denmark (82K tons) and the UK (53K tons). All these countries together held near 42% share of total exports. Poland (39K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to fresh pork carcase exports from Belgium stood at +1.6%. At the same time, the UK (+5.0%) and Denmark (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the UK emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.0% from 2012-2022. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-2.3%), the Netherlands (-5.1%) and Poland (-6.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Belgium (+8.1 p.p.) and the UK (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany, Poland and the Netherlands saw its share reduced by -2.5%, -2.7% and -4.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($889M) remains the largest fresh pork carcase supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($366M), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9% share.

In Belgium, fresh pork carcase exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-3.3% per year) and the Netherlands (-4.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average fresh pork carcase export price stood at $2,087 per ton in 2022, increasing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a slight slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,468 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($2,432 per ton), while the UK ($1,572 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+0.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform