Frozen Pork Carcase Market

The global market for frozen carcases of pig meat is on an upward trend, with consumption, production, and values forecasted to increase over the next eight-year period. Key players such as China, Russia, and the United States lead in both consumption and production. The market is driven by increasing demand worldwide, with noticeable fluctuations in trends recorded throughout the years. Import and export prices also vary by country, with the United States and Vietnam leading in exports. Overall, the market shows steady growth and potential for expansion in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for frozen carcases of pig meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $9.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Frozen Carcases Of Pig Meat

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in consumption of frozen carcases of pig meat, which increased by 4.5% to 2M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global frozen pork carcase market value expanded rapidly to $7.3B in 2022, increasing by 7.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (728K tons), Russia (526K tons) and the United States (160K tons), together accounting for 70% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($3.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($1.1B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the frozen pork carcase market increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Russia (+10.7% per year) and the United States (+9.5% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of frozen pork carcase per capita consumption was registered in Russia (3.7 kg per person), followed by the UK (1.1 kg per person), Canada (0.9 kg per person) and Turkey (0.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of frozen pork carcase was estimated at 0.3 kg per person.

In Russia, frozen pork carcase per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +12.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the UK (+2.5% per year) and Canada (-0.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Frozen Carcases Of Pig Meat

For the eighth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of frozen carcases of pig meat, which increased by 0.4% to 2M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a moderate increase of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, frozen pork carcase production dropped slightly to $6.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $7.1B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (729K tons), Russia (528K tons) and the United States (167K tons), with a combined 71% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +17.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Frozen Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2022, approx. 69K tons of frozen carcases of pig meat were imported worldwide; almost unchanged from 2021. Overall, imports recorded a abrupt shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 161K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, frozen pork carcase imports reduced slightly to $195M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a deep downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $448M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Philippines (14K tons), distantly followed by Hong Kong SAR (8.4K tons), Poland (6.4K tons), Romania (5.5K tons), Armenia (4.2K tons), Italy (3.7K tons) and the Dominican Republic (3.3K tons) represented the largest importers of frozen carcases of pig meat, together committing 67% of total imports. Georgia (3.1K tons), Greece (2K tons), the Netherlands (2K tons), Spain (1.8K tons), Puerto Rico (1.2K tons) and Bhutan (1.1K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Bhutan (with a CAGR of +48.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Hong Kong SAR ($47M), the Philippines ($24M) and Poland ($13M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 44% share of global imports. Romania, the Dominican Republic, Armenia, Georgia, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Puerto Rico and Bhutan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Bhutan, with a CAGR of +54.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average frozen pork carcase import price amounted to $2,831 per ton, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 27%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $3,363 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($5,591 per ton), while Italy ($1,230 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Frozen Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2022, overseas shipments of frozen carcases of pig meat decreased by -54.2% to 67K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports continue to indicate a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 460% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 286K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, frozen pork carcase exports reduced sharply to $192M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a deep slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 437% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $742M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Vietnam (15K tons) and Spain (13K tons) represented the key exporters of frozen carcases of pig meat in 2022, accounting for near 22% and 19% of total exports, respectively. The United States (7.2K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with an 11% share, followed by the Netherlands (7.7%), Brazil (7.5%), Italy (6%) and Germany (6%). Russia (2.3K tons), the UK (2K tons), Georgia (1.4K tons) and China (1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +78.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen pork carcase supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($44M), Vietnam ($41M) and Spain ($32M), together accounting for 61% of global exports. The Netherlands, Germany, Brazil, Italy, Russia, the UK, China and Georgia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +80.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average frozen pork carcase export price stood at $2,864 per ton in 2022, surging by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $3,379 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($6,093 per ton), while Italy ($1,528 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform