Hot-Rolled Free-Cutting Steel Market

The global market for hot-rolled free-cutting steel is projected to show growth in both volume and value from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% and +5.1%, respectively. Thailand leads in both consumption and production, followed by the UK and Italy. Imports and exports are also on the rise, with Germany, Switzerland, and the United Arab Emirates emerging as major exporters. Prices have seen fluctuations but are expected to continue growing in the near term.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for hot-rolled free-cutting steel worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Hot-Rolled Bars In Free-Cutting Steels

In 2022, approx. 978K tons of hot-rolled bars in free-cutting steels were consumed worldwide; flattening at the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 1.2M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global hot-rolled free-cutting steel market value amounted to $845M in 2022, growing by 6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $890M in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

Thailand (297K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of hot-rolled free-cutting steel consumption, comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled free-cutting steel consumption in Thailand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the UK (135K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (87K tons), with an 8.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Thailand stood at +1.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the UK (+6.6% per year) and Italy (+4.2% per year).

In value terms, the largest hot-rolled free-cutting steel markets worldwide were Thailand ($185M), the UK ($118M) and Italy ($100M), with a combined 48% share of the global market. Japan, the United States, Taiwan (Chinese), Saudi Arabia, Spain, Germany, Argentina, France and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Argentina, with a CAGR of +14.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of hot-rolled free-cutting steel per capita consumption in 2022 were Thailand (4.2 kg per person), Taiwan (Chinese) (2.3 kg per person) and the UK (2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Taiwan (Chinese) (with a CAGR of +12.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Hot-Rolled Bars In Free-Cutting Steels

Global hot-rolled free-cutting steel production expanded notably to 1M tons in 2022, surging by 6.1% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, production recorded slight growth. As a result, production attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, hot-rolled free-cutting steel production fell slightly to $705M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 6.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $765M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Thailand (304K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of hot-rolled free-cutting steel production, comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled free-cutting steel production in Thailand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the UK (125K tons), twofold. Japan (72K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Thailand was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the UK (+0.4% per year) and Japan (-0.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Hot-Rolled Bars In Free-Cutting Steels

In 2022, approx. 331K tons of hot-rolled bars in free-cutting steels were imported worldwide; shrinking by -2.8% on the previous year. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a pronounced slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 36%. Global imports peaked at 673K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled free-cutting steel imports soared to $400M in 2022. In general, imports saw a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 82% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $499M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Italy (82K tons), distantly followed by the United States (48K tons), Germany (35K tons) and Turkey (16K tons) were the main importers of hot-rolled bars in free-cutting steels, together committing 54% of total imports. Canada (12K tons), Poland (11K tons), the UK (11K tons), Israel (11K tons), Algeria (9.2K tons), the Netherlands (8K tons), France (6.9K tons), Spain (6.7K tons) and Singapore (6.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Israel (with a CAGR of +45.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($103M), the United States ($64M) and Germany ($42M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 52% share of global imports. Turkey, Canada, Poland, the UK, Israel, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Algeria and Singapore lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

Among the main importing countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +48.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average hot-rolled free-cutting steel import price stood at $1,209 per ton in 2022, surging by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled free-cutting steel import price increased by +70.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 34% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,339 per ton), while Algeria ($593 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Hot-Rolled Bars In Free-Cutting Steels

In 2022, shipments abroad of hot-rolled bars in free-cutting steels increased by 16% to 357K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a pronounced downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 26%. The global exports peaked at 562K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled free-cutting steel exports skyrocketed to $421M in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 62%. The global exports peaked at $493M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the four major exporters of hot-rolled bars in free-cutting steels, namely Germany, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates and France, represented more than half of total export. It was distantly followed by Canada (25K tons), achieving a 7.1% share of total exports. Rwanda (14K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (12K tons), Italy (11K tons), the Czech Republic (8.5K tons), the United States (7.8K tons), Thailand (7.4K tons) and Angola (6K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Angola (with a CAGR of +292.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($101M), Switzerland ($74M) and France ($59M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 55% of global exports. Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Rwanda, Italy, the Czech Republic, the United States, Taiwan (Chinese), Thailand and Angola lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main exporting countries, Rwanda, with a CAGR of +206.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average hot-rolled free-cutting steel export price stood at $1,180 per ton in 2022, growing by 17% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled free-cutting steel export price increased by +66.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,464 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($675 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform