Millet Market

The global millet market is projected to continue its upward trend, with consumption, production, import, and export volumes all expected to increase over the next eight years. Key findings include growth in consumption volume to 34M tons by 2030, an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for consumption, and a market value of $18.4B by 2030. India is the largest consumer and producer of millet, while Indonesia and India are the leading importers. Turkey shows the highest growth rate in millet exports, with prices varying significantly by country of origin.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for millet worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 34M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Millet

In 2022, global millet consumption expanded slightly to 31M tons, picking up by 4.4% compared with the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 32M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global millet market revenue rose remarkably to $14.2B in 2022, growing by 6.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $15B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

India (12M tons) remains the largest millet consuming country worldwide, accounting for 38% of total volume. Moreover, millet consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Niger (3.7M tons), threefold. China (2.7M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8.7% share.

In India, millet consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Niger (-0.6% per year) and China (+4.2% per year).

In value terms, the largest millet markets worldwide were India ($3.8B), China ($2.6B) and Senegal ($1.4B), with a combined 55% share of the global market. Niger, Sudan, Ethiopia, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Sudan, with a CAGR of +20.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of millet per capita consumption in 2022 were Niger (140 kg per person), Mali (86 kg per person) and Senegal (62 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Sudan (with a CAGR of +13.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Millet

In 2022, the amount of millet produced worldwide expanded modestly to 31M tons, increasing by 4.3% against 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 14%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 32M tons. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, millet production expanded sharply to $14.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $15.9B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

India (12M tons) remains the largest millet producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, millet production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Niger (3.7M tons), threefold. China (2.7M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.7% share.

In India, millet production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Niger (-0.5% per year) and China (+4.2% per year).

Yield

The global average millet yield totaled 1 tons per ha in 2022, growing by 5.3% on the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, the average millet yield hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

The global millet harvested area dropped to 30M ha in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. In general, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to millet production attained the peak figure at 32M ha in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Millet

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in supplies from abroad of millet, when their volume decreased by -11.9% to 475K tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 29%. Global imports peaked at 539K tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, millet imports stood at $240M in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +57.5% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 25% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Indonesia (75K tons), distantly followed by Germany (28K tons), Belgium (27K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (22K tons) represented the key importers of millet, together generating 32% of total imports. Nepal (20K tons), Turkey (20K tons), Kenya (19K tons), Iraq (15K tons), the UK (14K tons), Canada (13K tons), Spain (13K tons), the Philippines (12K tons) and Thailand (12K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to millet imports into Indonesia stood at +14.0%. At the same time, Kenya (+26.6%), Thailand (+8.8%), Spain (+8.2%), Turkey (+6.7%), the Philippines (+5.7%), the United Arab Emirates (+5.1%), Germany (+4.0%), Iraq (+4.0%), Canada (+3.3%) and the UK (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.6% from 2012-2022. Belgium and Nepal experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Indonesia, Kenya and Turkey increased by +11, +3.5 and +1.6 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($40M) constitutes the largest market for imported millet worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($17M), with a 7% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 6.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Indonesia amounted to +17.4%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+5.6% per year) and Belgium (+2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average millet import price amounted to $506 per ton, picking up by 18% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 29%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($697 per ton), while Iraq ($263 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nepal (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Millet

In 2022, shipments abroad of millet decreased by -13.8% to 441K tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 26% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 511K tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, millet exports rose modestly to $200M in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +72.3% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 37%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, India (100K tons), Ukraine (68K tons), Russia (65K tons), the United States (56K tons) and France (41K tons) was the main exporter of millet in the world, making up 75% of total export. It was distantly followed by Turkey (21K tons), committing a 4.8% share of total exports. The following exporters - Poland (12K tons), Uzbekistan (8.7K tons), Canada (7.9K tons) and Austria (7.2K tons) - together made up 8.1% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +75.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest millet supplying countries worldwide were India ($37M), the United States ($33M) and Russia ($27M), together comprising 49% of global exports. Ukraine, France, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Poland, Austria and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +63.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average millet export price amounted to $453 per ton, rising by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 22%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uzbekistan ($955 per ton), while Turkey ($302 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+17.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform