Potato Market

The global potato market is on the rise, with increasing demand worldwide. Consumption of potatoes reached 370M tons in 2022, with the market value at $152.7B. The market is forecasted to continue growing, with a CAGR of +1.6% in volume and +3.3% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 420M tons and $198.6B by 2030. China leads in consumption and value, while Belgium, Ukraine, and Peru show high per capita consumption. Production reached 369M tons in 2022, with an average yield of 21 tons per ha. Global imports and exports are on the rise, with Belgium, the Netherlands, and France leading in exports, and Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands importing the most. Overall, the potato market shows steady growth and promising future prospects.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for potatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 420M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $198.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potatoes

In 2022, consumption of potatoes decreased by less than 0.1% to 370M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 3.8%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 370M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

The global potato market value reached $152.7B in 2022, rising by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $163.8B. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (95M tons), India (56M tons) and Ukraine (21M tons), together accounting for 46% of global consumption. Russia, the United States, Bangladesh, Germany, Pakistan, Poland, Peru, Belgium, Canada and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($52.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($11.7B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +4.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+3.9% per year) and the United States (-0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of potato per capita consumption in 2022 were Belgium (510 kg per person), Ukraine (479 kg per person) and Peru (179 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Potatoes

In 2022, global production of potatoes amounted to 369M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, potato production rose to $148.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the production volume increased by 21%. Global production peaked at $165.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (96M tons), India (56M tons) and Ukraine (21M tons), with a combined 47% share of global production. Russia, the United States, Germany, Bangladesh, France, Pakistan, Canada, Egypt, Poland and Peru lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +8.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average potato yield amounted to 21 tons per ha in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. In general, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the yield increased by 4.9%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 22 tons per ha. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the average potato yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global potato harvested area contracted slightly to 18M ha in 2022, approximately equating the previous year's figure. In general, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 7.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to potato production attained the peak figure at 18M ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Potatoes

Global potato imports expanded sharply to 16M tons in 2022, with an increase of 5.5% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potato imports expanded markedly to $5.4B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Belgium (3.4M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (1.7M tons) and Spain (1.1M tons) were the major importers of potatoes, together committing 38% of total imports. Italy (647K tons), Uzbekistan (555K tons), Germany (533K tons), the United States (475K tons), Portugal (465K tons), Russia (429K tons), France (420K tons), the United Arab Emirates (325K tons), Nepal (303K tons) and Afghanistan (249K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to potato imports into Belgium stood at +7.4%. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+20.8%), the United Arab Emirates (+13.9%), France (+11.5%), Nepal (+7.7%), Spain (+4.5%), the United States (+3.0%) and Afghanistan (+2.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.8% from 2012-2022. Portugal, Italy and Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.7%) and Germany (-4.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Belgium (+7.5 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+3.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-3.7 p.p.) and the Netherlands (-6.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belgium ($748M), Spain ($388M) and the Netherlands ($358M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 28% share of global imports. The United States, Germany, Italy, Russia, France, Portugal, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Nepal and Afghanistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +15.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average potato import price stood at $335 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the average import price increased by 22% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $373 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($585 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($146 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Potatoes

In 2022, approx. 15M tons of potatoes were exported worldwide; growing by 11% on 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, potato exports skyrocketed to $5.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

France (2.9M tons), the Netherlands (2.5M tons) and Germany (2.2M tons) represented roughly 50% of total exports in 2022. Belgium (1,072K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Pakistan (926K tons) and Egypt (718K tons). All these countries together took approx. 18% share of total exports. Canada (645K tons), the United States (551K tons), China (452K tons), India (442K tons), Spain (377K tons) and the UK (261K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +14.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potato supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($985M), France ($859M) and Germany ($468M), with a combined 44% share of global exports. Canada, Egypt, the United States, China, Pakistan, Belgium, the UK, Spain and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

India, with a CAGR of +17.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average potato export price stood at $341 per ton in 2022, increasing by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average export price increased by 22% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $372 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($663 per ton), while Belgium ($198 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform