Powdered Milk Market

The global powdered milk market is experiencing significant growth, with consumption, production, and exports all on the rise. Consumption is forecasted to reach 11M tons and $48.4B by 2030, with major importing and exporting countries such as China, New Zealand, and the United States leading the market. The market is expected to continue to expand, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Skim powdered milk and dairy produce are dominating the market structure, with notable growth in both production and imports observed in recent years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for powdered milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $48.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Powdered Milk

In 2022, global powdered milk consumption expanded markedly to 9M tons, growing by 5.2% compared with the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

The global powdered milk market size rose significantly to $33.5B in 2022, increasing by 12% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $35.7B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1M tons), Brazil (693K tons) and Mexico (441K tons), with a combined 24% share of global consumption. The United States, Algeria, Indonesia, India, Italy, Germany, New Zealand, Vietnam, the Netherlands and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by New Zealand (with a CAGR of +18.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($4.1B), Brazil ($2.4B) and Mexico ($1.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 24% share of the global market. Italy, New Zealand, Indonesia, Algeria, the United States, India, Vietnam, Germany, the Philippines and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, New Zealand, with a CAGR of +19.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of powdered milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (49 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (11 kg per person), Algeria (8 kg per person) and Italy (4.6 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of powdered milk was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the powdered milk per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled +16.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+7.7% per year) and Algeria (+0.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Powdered Milk

In 2022, the amount of powdered milk produced worldwide totaled 8.8M tons, remaining stable against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by mild growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, powdered milk production expanded slightly to $27.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 20% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $36.8B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were New Zealand (1.9M tons), the United States (1.2M tons) and Brazil (592K tons), with a combined 43% share of global production. Germany, France, India, the Netherlands, Argentina, Belgium, Australia, Ireland, Poland and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +8.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Powdered Milk

Global powdered milk imports was estimated at 6.1M tons in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 9.5%. Global imports peaked at 6.2M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, powdered milk imports soared to $23.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +59.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 17%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $25.1B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (1.1M tons), distantly followed by Algeria (363K tons), Indonesia (310K tons) and Mexico (285K tons) were the major importers of powdered milk, together mixing up 33% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (226K tons), the United Arab Emirates (226K tons), the Philippines (200K tons), Belgium (181K tons), Malaysia (170K tons), Saudi Arabia (147K tons), Thailand (138K tons), Italy (124K tons) and Bangladesh (123K tons) - together made up 25% of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the powdered milk imports, with a CAGR of +6.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Indonesia (+4.5%), Bangladesh (+4.5%), the Philippines (+3.9%), the United Arab Emirates (+3.7%), Italy (+3.4%), Thailand (+3.3%), Malaysia (+2.4%), the Netherlands (+2.3%), Algeria (+2.2%), Belgium (+1.6%) and Mexico (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Saudi Arabia (-1.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China increased by +6 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported powdered milk worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($1.3B), with a 5.3% share of global imports. It was followed by Algeria, with a 4.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +8.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+6.0% per year) and Algeria (+0.5% per year).

Imports By Type

Skim powdered milk (3.1M tons) and dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (2.9M tons) dominates imports structure, together achieving 98% of total imports. Dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (138K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for skim powdered milk (with a CAGR of +2.2%), while purchases for the other products experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

In value terms, dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($12B), skim powdered milk ($11.1B) and dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($521M) constituted the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022.

In terms of the main imported products, skim powdered milk, with a CAGR of +3.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average powdered milk import price amounted to $3,853 per ton, surging by 15% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4,449 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($4,168 per ton), while the price for skim powdered milk ($3,566 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+1.7%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average powdered milk import price stood at $3,853 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $4,449 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in China ($4,288 per ton) and Malaysia ($4,113 per ton), while Bangladesh ($3,042 per ton) and Algeria ($3,096 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+2.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Powdered Milk

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was decline in overseas shipments of powdered milk, when their volume decreased by -3.9% to 5.9M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 6.6%. The global exports peaked at 6.2M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, powdered milk exports expanded notably to $23.7B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.4% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, New Zealand (1.7M tons), distantly followed by the United States (876K tons), Germany (376K tons), France (304K tons) and the Netherlands (291K tons) represented the main exporters of powdered milk, together achieving 59% of total exports. The following exporters - the United Arab Emirates (246K tons), Belgium (240K tons), Ireland (219K tons), Australia (213K tons), Argentina (181K tons), Uruguay (157K tons), Belarus (153K tons) and Poland (142K tons) - together made up 26% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +14.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, New Zealand ($6.8B) remains the largest powdered milk supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($3.3B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.3% share.

In New Zealand, powdered milk exports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+8.8% per year) and Germany (+3.5% per year).

Exports By Type

Skim powdered milk (3.2M tons) and dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (2.6M tons) prevails in exports structure, together achieving 98% of total exports. Dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (98K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for skim powdered milk (with a CAGR of +3.0%), while shipments for the other products experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

In value terms, skim powdered milk ($12B), dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($11.2B) and dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($467M) were the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022.

In terms of the main exported products, skim powdered milk, with a CAGR of +5.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average powdered milk export price amounted to $3,987 per ton, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered milk export price increased by +62.8% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $4,149 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) ($4,760 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim powdered milk ($3,751 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) (+4.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average powdered milk export price amounted to $3,987 per ton, rising by 18% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered milk export price increased by +62.8% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $4,149 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,870 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($2,929 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform