Propene Market

The global propene (propylene) market is expected to experience a steady growth in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.1% and +2.9% respectively. Key countries like China, the United States, and India lead in consumption and production volumes. Import and export trends show shifts in market dynamics, with countries like South Korea and the Netherlands emerging as key exporters. Prices have varied over the years, affecting global trade patterns.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for propene (propylene) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 105M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $168B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Propene (Propylene)

In 2022, global propene consumption fell modestly to 97M tons, shrinking by -2% against the previous year. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 100M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global propene market value fell slightly to $134.2B in 2022, which is down by -4.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $144.2B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (21M tons), the United States (12M tons) and India (8M tons), together comprising 42% of global consumption. Pakistan, Japan, Brazil, Germany, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Ethiopia, Canada and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($41.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($13.7B). It was followed by India.

In China, the propene market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+0.6% per year) and India (+0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of propene per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (44 kg per person), the United States (37 kg per person) and Germany (31 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +8.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Propene (Propylene)

In 2022, approx. 97M tons of propene (propylene) were produced worldwide; shrinking by -2.2% on the previous year's figure. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 7.1%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 100M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, propene production dropped to $126.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a mild curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $147.3B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (18M tons), the United States (13M tons) and India (8M tons), together comprising 40% of global production. Pakistan, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, Germany, Mexico, Ethiopia and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Propene (Propylene)

In 2022, the amount of propene (propylene) imported worldwide shrank to 6.5M tons, with a decrease of -12.4% against the previous year. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 8%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 7.9M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, propene imports shrank to $7.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a slight slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $9.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

China represented the main importing country with an import of around 2.3M tons, which finished at 36% of total imports. Germany (611K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 9.4% share, followed by Belgium (8.9%), the Netherlands (8.5%), France (5.6%) and Colombia (4.6%). Taiwan (Chinese) (191K tons), Indonesia (172K tons), Mexico (161K tons), Japan (152K tons), Poland (129K tons) and Singapore (114K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

China experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of propene (propylene). At the same time, Singapore (+30.7%), Japan (+13.4%), France (+10.8%), Mexico (+7.0%) and the Netherlands (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Singapore emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +30.7% from 2012-2022. Colombia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Poland (-1.9%), Belgium (-2.3%), Indonesia (-3.3%), Germany (-4.6%) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-6.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of France (+3.6 p.p.), China (+3.6 p.p.), the Netherlands (+1.8 p.p.), Japan (+1.7 p.p.) and Singapore (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Belgium (-2.1 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (-3 p.p.) and Germany (-5.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.4B) constitutes the largest market for imported propene (propylene) worldwide, comprising 31% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($861M), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to -2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-4.4% per year) and Belgium (-1.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average propene import price stood at $1,175 per ton in 2022, surging by 4.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 40% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $1,394 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Belgium ($1,455 per ton) and Germany ($1,408 per ton), while Colombia ($984 per ton) and China ($1,018 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Propene (Propylene)

In 2022, global exports of propene (propylene) declined to 6.7M tons, waning by -13.7% on the previous year. Over the period under review, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 5.9% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 7.9M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, propene exports fell to $7.5B in 2022. Overall, exports recorded a slight setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 55%. The global exports peaked at $9.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

South Korea represented the key exporter of propene (propylene) in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 1.6M tons, which was near 25% of total exports in 2022. The Netherlands (633K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (607K tons), the United States (550K tons), Japan (538K tons) and Germany (355K tons). All these countries together held near 40% share of total exports. Spain (281K tons), Italy (221K tons), Belgium (144K tons), Portugal (141K tons), Thailand (132K tons), Malaysia (122K tons) and the UK (107K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Exports from South Korea increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Malaysia (+33.2%), the United States (+15.3%), Germany (+5.8%), Portugal (+5.3%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+1.9%) and the Netherlands (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Malaysia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +33.2% from 2012-2022. Spain and Thailand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-1.5%), Belgium (-4.1%), Japan (-4.2%) and the UK (-12.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of South Korea, the United States, Germany, Taiwan (Chinese) and Malaysia increased by +6.8, +6.3, +2.4, +1.7 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Korea ($1.6B), the Netherlands ($824M) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($668M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 41% share of global exports. The United States, Germany, Japan, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Thailand, the UK and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +22.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average propene export price amounted to $1,128 per ton, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a slight downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 46%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $1,342 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Portugal ($1,485 per ton), while Japan ($887 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+0.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform