Raw Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products Market

The market for raw steel and steel semi-finished products is forecasted to experience growth from 2022 to 2030, with an increase in both volume and value. China leads in consumption and production, while Russia is the largest exporting country. Import prices are on the rise, with notable differences in prices by product type and exporting country.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for raw steel and steel semi-finished products worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 121M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $113.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Raw Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products

In 2022, consumption of raw steel and steel semi-finished products decreased by -2.5% to 93M tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, consumption saw a mild contraction. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 109M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption of failed to regain momentum.

The value of the market for raw steel and steel semi-finished products worldwide shrank to $73B in 2022, which is down by -6.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $87.1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (15M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of consumption of raw steel and steel semi-finished products, accounting for 16% of total volume. Moreover, consumption of raw steel and steel semi-finished products in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Ukraine (6.2M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Italy (5.2M tons), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +8.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Ukraine (+6.1% per year) and Italy (+0.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($15.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($4B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +7.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (+2.1% per year) and the United States (-0.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of raw steel and steel semi-finished products per capita consumption in 2022 were Ukraine (141 kg per person), Taiwan (Chinese) (108 kg per person) and Italy (88 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +20.7%), while products for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Raw Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products

In 2022, production of raw steel and steel semi-finished products decreased by -2.6% to 105M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 3.3% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 109M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, production of raw steel and steel semi-finished products amounted to $89.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Production By Country

Russia (24M tons) remains the largest raw steel and steel semi-finished products producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, production of raw steel and steel semi-finished products in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (10M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Ukraine (8.1M tons), with a 7.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Russia was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Brazil (+0.6% per year) and Ukraine (-4.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Raw Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products

In 2022, overseas purchases of raw steel and steel semi-finished products decreased by -22.5% to 50M tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports saw a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 17%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 66M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports of remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, imports of raw steel and steel semi-finished products shrank to $47B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +46.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 65%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $53.3B, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (8.5M tons), distantly followed by the United States (4.9M tons), Indonesia (3.7M tons), Italy (3.7M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (2.6M tons), Thailand (2.6M tons) and the Philippines (2.4M tons) represented the major importers of raw steel and steel semi-finished products, together generating 56% of total imports. Belgium (1.8M tons), South Korea (1.7M tons), France (1.3M tons), Denmark (0.8M tons), Poland (0.8M tons) and Canada (0.8M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +35.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($7.9B), the United States ($4.4B) and Italy ($3.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 33% share of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +30.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof dominates products structure, amounting to 43M tons, which was near 85% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (3.8M tons) and stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (2.7M tons), together comprising a 13% share of total imports. Iron and non-alloy steel in ingots (1.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof imports of stood at -2.4%. At the same time, stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+15.0%) and alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, iron and non-alloy steel in ingots (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+4.2 p.p.) and alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (+2.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof saw its share reduced by -6.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof ($34.4B) constitutes the largest type of raw steel and steel semi-finished products imported worldwide, comprising 73% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms ($7.3B), with a 16% share of global imports. It was followed by alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel, with a 9.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof imports was relatively modest. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+12.1% per year) and alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (+2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average import price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products amounted to $935 per ton, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, import price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products increased by +90.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 68%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms ($2,717 per ton), while the price for iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof ($804 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof (+2.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average import price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products stood at $935 per ton in 2022, growing by 14% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, import price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products increased by +90.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 68%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,198 per ton), while Indonesia ($652 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+12.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Raw Steel And Steel Semi-Finished Products

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of raw steel and steel semi-finished products decreased by -19.4% to 62M tons in 2022. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports of hit record highs at 77M tons in 2021, and then fell markedly in the following year.

In value terms, exports of raw steel and steel semi-finished products shrank markedly to $49.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 78% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $59.1B, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Russia was the main exporting country with an export of around 19M tons, which resulted at 30% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Brazil (8M tons), Iran (6.8M tons), Indonesia (4.1M tons) and Japan (3.1M tons), together committing a 35% share of total exports. The following exporters - India (2M tons), Ukraine (2M tons), Germany (1.9M tons), Oman (1.5M tons), Vietnam (1.2M tons), Malaysia (1.2M tons) and the United Arab Emirates (1.1M tons) - together made up 17% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to raw steel and steel semi-finished products exports from Russia stood at +3.8%. At the same time, Indonesia (+101.1%), Oman (+44.7%), Iran (+32.9%), the United Arab Emirates (+17.4%), India (+13.3%), Vietnam (+11.9%), Malaysia (+7.1%) and Brazil (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Indonesia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +101.1% from 2012-2022. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-5.6%) and Ukraine (-15.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Iran (+10 p.p.), Russia (+8.8 p.p.), Indonesia (+6.5 p.p.), Oman (+2.3 p.p.), India (+2.3 p.p.) and Brazil (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Japan (-4.1 p.p.) and Ukraine (-13.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($13B) remains the largest raw steel and steel semi-finished products supplier worldwide, comprising 26% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($6.4B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Indonesia, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia amounted to +5.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+5.3% per year) and Indonesia (+89.7% per year).

Exports By Type

Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof prevails in products structure, amounting to 53M tons, which was near 89% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (3.6M tons), creating a 6% share of total exports. Stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (2.4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+13.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (-1.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+2.9 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof ($37.1B) remains the largest type of raw steel and steel semi-finished products supplied worldwide, comprising 77% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms ($6.6B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel, with an 8.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof exports totaled +1.7%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms (+10.9% per year) and alloy steel in ingots or other primary forms, semi-finished products of other alloy steel (+0.9% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products stood at $795 per ton in 2022, growing by 3.8% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, export price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products increased by +71.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 65%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms ($2,690 per ton), while the average price for exports of iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products thereof ($701 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron and non-alloy steel in ingot (+5.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products amounted to $795 per ton, rising by 3.8% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, export price for raw steel and steel semi-finished products increased by +71.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 65% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($1,334 per ton), while Iran ($524 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Iran (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform