Shelled Walnut Market

The global market for shelled walnuts is expected to see growth in both volume and value over the next eight years, with demand being fueled by various countries worldwide. Consumption patterns have been increasing steadily, with China leading the way as the largest consumer of shelled walnuts. Production and imports are also on the rise, with a positive outlook for the market in the near future. The United States is a major player in both the export and import of shelled walnuts, showcasing a strong presence in the global market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for shelled walnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Shelled Walnuts

In 2022, consumption of shelled walnuts increased by 12% to 3.9M tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global shelled walnut market value rose remarkably to $22.8B in 2022, growing by 8.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $25.4B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of shelled walnut consumption, accounting for 35% of total volume. Moreover, shelled walnut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (528K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Iran (354K tons), with a 9.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +6.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+2.1% per year) and Iran (+2.1% per year).

In value terms, the largest shelled walnut markets worldwide were China ($6.2B), the United States ($3.4B) and Iran ($2.5B), together accounting for 53% of the global market. Turkey, Mexico, Chile, Burkina Faso, Ukraine and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Chile, with a CAGR of +10.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of shelled walnut per capita consumption in 2022 were Chile (6.1 kg per person), Burkina Faso (6.1 kg per person) and Greece (6 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +13.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Shelled Walnuts

In 2022, the amount of shelled walnuts produced worldwide rose notably to 3.9M tons, with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, shelled walnut production expanded to $21.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 33%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $28.1B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of shelled walnut production was China (1.4M tons), comprising approx. 36% of total volume. Moreover, shelled walnut production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (682K tons), twofold. Iran (355K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9% share.

In China, shelled walnut production expanded at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.2% per year) and Iran (+2.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Shelled Walnuts

In 2022, the amount of shelled walnuts imported worldwide reached 320K tons, rising by 4.2% compared with 2021. In general, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +86.3% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, shelled walnut imports expanded sharply to $1.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $1.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (53K tons), distantly followed by Spain (19K tons), Japan (18K tons), the Netherlands (17K tons), Turkey (15K tons) and South Korea (15K tons) represented the key importers of shelled walnuts, together making up 43% of total imports. Kyrgyzstan (12K tons), France (11K tons), Canada (11K tons), the UK (10K tons), Italy (9.4K tons), the United Arab Emirates (8.7K tons) and Kazakhstan (8K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Germany increased at an average annual rate of +12.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan (+430.1%), the United Arab Emirates (+18.3%), Kazakhstan (+15.2%), the Netherlands (+13.1%), Italy (+8.4%), Spain (+7.9%), Turkey (+7.0%), the UK (+5.2%), Japan (+5.0%), France (+3.8%), South Korea (+3.2%) and Canada (+2.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +430.1% from 2012-2022. While the share of Germany (+7 p.p.), Kyrgyzstan (+3.9 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.5 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of South Korea (-1.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($351M) constitutes the largest market for imported shelled walnuts worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Spain ($141M), with a 7.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Japan, with a 6.3% share.

In Germany, shelled walnut imports expanded at an average annual rate of +7.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Spain (+4.1% per year) and Japan (-0.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average shelled walnut import price stood at $5,714 per ton in 2022, rising by 2.6% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a pronounced reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average import price increased by 13%. Global import price peaked at $9,462 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($7,239 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($904 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (-0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Shelled Walnuts

Global shelled walnut exports fell to 374K tons in 2022, reducing by -3% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +94.5% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 21%. The global exports peaked at 385K tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, shelled walnut exports shrank to $2.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $2.4B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (154K tons) represented the major exporter of shelled walnuts, creating 41% of total exports. It was distantly followed by China (44K tons), Mexico (42K tons), Chile (35K tons) and Ukraine (20K tons), together comprising a 38% share of total exports. The following exporters - Germany (14K tons), Turkey (8.3K tons), Moldova (8.2K tons), Romania (6.7K tons) and the Netherlands (6.6K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +8.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+20.0%), the Netherlands (+15.6%), Germany (+13.7%), Chile (+12.3%), Mexico (+11.0%) and Turkey (+4.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2012-2022. Romania experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Ukraine (-4.1%) and Moldova (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, the United States, Chile, Mexico and Germany increased by +8.1, +4.4, +3.6, +3.6 and +1.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest shelled walnut supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($885M), Mexico ($466M) and Chile ($214M), together accounting for 67% of global exports. China, Germany, Ukraine, Turkey, Moldova, the Netherlands and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

China, with a CAGR of +13.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average shelled walnut export price amounted to $6,214 per ton, declining by -2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a noticeable setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 16% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $9,042 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($11,026 per ton), while Ukraine ($3,753 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+0.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform