Unsweetened Condensed And Evaporated Milk Market

The article discusses the projected growth of the global market for unsweetened condensed or evaporated milk over the period from 2022 to 2030. The forecast indicates an increase in market volume and value, with a positive trend in consumption and production. Key importing countries include the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, and Greece, while key exporting countries are Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Arab Emirates. The article also highlights the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices and volume for various countries over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Unsweetened)

In 2022, the amount of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) consumed worldwide reached 3.5M tons, surging by 2.8% on the previous year's figure. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 4.1M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the market for condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) worldwide rose rapidly to $5.9B in 2022, picking up by 7.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $6.1B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Peru (507K tons), the Netherlands (282K tons) and Germany (281K tons), with a combined 30% share of global consumption. The United States, France, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Belarus, Singapore, Greece, Mexico, China and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +17.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Peru ($751M), Germany ($412M) and the United States ($410M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 27% of the global market. The Netherlands, Singapore, Russia, France, China, Greece, Belarus, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +13.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of unsweetened condensed and evaporated milk per capita consumption in 2022 were Singapore (25 kg per person), Belarus (17 kg per person) and the Netherlands (16 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +16.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Unsweetened)

In 2022, production of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) decreased by -1.3% to 3.3M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 14%. Global production peaked at 4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, unsweetened condensed and evaporated milk production expanded notably to $5.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 12%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $5.9B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Peru (521K tons), Germany (470K tons) and the Netherlands (370K tons), with a combined 41% share of global production. The United States, France, Russia, Belarus, Mexico, Singapore, China, Saudi Arabia and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +23.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Unsweetened)

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened), which increased by 12% to 1.5M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, unsweetened condensed and evaporated milk imports surged to $2.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +72.6% against 2016 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (243K tons), followed by the Netherlands (159K tons), Greece (139K tons), Belgium (101K tons), Germany (92K tons), Saudi Arabia (91K tons) and Oman (70K tons) represented the main importers of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened), together constituting 60% of total imports. France (58K tons), Libya (49K tons), Kuwait (37K tons), Hong Kong SAR (36K tons), Iraq (29K tons) and Bahrain (29K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Iraq (with a CAGR of +31.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest unsweetened condensed and evaporated milk importing markets worldwide were the United Arab Emirates ($271M), Greece ($203M) and Saudi Arabia ($197M), with a combined 30% share of global imports. The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Oman, France, Libya, Kuwait, Hong Kong SAR, Iraq and Bahrain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

Iraq, with a CAGR of +31.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) amounted to $1,496 per ton, surging by 11% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $1,540 per ton in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($2,159 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($1,114 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Condensed Or Evaporated Milk (Unsweetened)

In 2022, shipments abroad of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) increased by 1.7% to 1.3M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, unsweetened condensed and evaporated milk exports soared to $2B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +75.1% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (281K tons) and the Netherlands (248K tons) were the key exporters of condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened)around the world, together resulting at approx. 42% of total exports. Saudi Arabia (152K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by France (7.6%), the United Arab Emirates (7.1%) and Belgium (5.6%). The UK (39K tons), Australia (33K tons), Luxembourg (31K tons), South Africa (28K tons), Kuwait (22K tons) and Oman (21K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Oman (with a CAGR of +103.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($441M), Germany ($415M) and the United Arab Emirates ($158M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 51% share of global exports. Saudi Arabia, France, Belgium, Australia, the UK, Luxembourg, Kuwait, Oman and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Oman, with a CAGR of +106.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for condensed or evaporated milk (unsweetened) stood at $1,585 per ton in 2022, growing by 17% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $1,611 per ton in 2013; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($2,401 per ton), while South Africa ($264 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kuwait (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform