Vinyl Chloride Market

The global vinyl chloride market is forecasted to have a slight increase in performance over the next eight years, with a projected CAGR of +1.8% from 2022 to 2030. Consumption is expected to rise, reaching 7.4M tons by the end of 2030. In 2022, global vinyl chloride consumption dropped, but certain countries like China, Qatar, and India still dominated the market. Production and export prices also showed fluctuations over the years. The article provides detailed data on market trends, consumption patterns, production volumes, and export prices for vinyl chloride worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for vinyl chloride worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Vinyl Chloride (Chloroethylene)

In 2022, global vinyl chloride consumption dropped modestly to 6.4M tons, which is down by -4.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 10M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global vinyl chloride market size contracted to $6.8B in 2022, shrinking by -10.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a perceptible decrease. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $12.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1M tons), Qatar (742K tons) and India (526K tons), with a combined 36% share of global consumption. The United States, Colombia, Vietnam, Canada, Indonesia, France, South Korea, Germany, Pakistan and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by South Korea (with a CAGR of +4.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vinyl chloride markets worldwide were China ($896M), India ($530M) and Colombia ($458M), together accounting for 28% of the global market. Pakistan, Vietnam, the United States, Portugal, Canada, Indonesia, South Korea, France and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +6.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of vinyl chloride per capita consumption was registered in Qatar (249 kg per person), followed by Portugal (17 kg per person), Colombia (8.3 kg per person) and Canada (5.6 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of vinyl chloride was estimated at 0.8 kg per person.

In Qatar, vinyl chloride per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Portugal (-1.3% per year) and Colombia (-0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Vinyl Chloride (Chloroethylene)

In 2022, approx. 6.7M tons of vinyl chloride (chloroethylene) were produced worldwide; waning by -1.5% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production saw a pronounced reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 2.9%. Global production peaked at 9.5M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, vinyl chloride production reached $4.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 3.1%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $10B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (1.7M tons), Japan (1M tons) and Qatar (742K tons), with a combined 51% share of global production. Belgium, Norway, Taiwan (Chinese), Germany, South Korea, China, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +23.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Vinyl Chloride (Chloroethylene)

In 2022, supplies from abroad of vinyl chloride (chloroethylene) decreased by -12.3% to 4M tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a seven-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 9.3%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 4.6M tons, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, vinyl chloride imports reduced to $3.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +46.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 72% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $4.6B, and then declined in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (922K tons), distantly followed by India (521K tons), Colombia (427K tons), Vietnam (347K tons), France (325K tons) and Canada (217K tons) represented the major importers of vinyl chloride (chloroethylene), together constituting 69% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (175K tons), Portugal (170K tons), the UK (154K tons), the Philippines (149K tons), Indonesia (110K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (102K tons) and South Korea (88K tons) - together made up 24% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Korea (with a CAGR of +42.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vinyl chloride importing markets worldwide were China ($861M), India ($558M) and Colombia ($458M), with a combined 48% share of global imports. Vietnam, France, Portugal, Canada, the Philippines, the Netherlands, the UK, Indonesia, Taiwan (Chinese) and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 45%.

Among the main importing countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +44.3%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average vinyl chloride import price stood at $988 per ton in 2022, falling by -2.7% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vinyl chloride import price increased by +53.1% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 57% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,016 per ton, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Portugal ($1,435 per ton), while France ($767 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+10.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Vinyl Chloride (Chloroethylene)

In 2022, the amount of vinyl chloride (chloroethylene) exported worldwide reduced to 4.3M tons, falling by -7.3% on the previous year. In general, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +7.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 4.7M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, vinyl chloride exports shrank to $4B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 75%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $4.3B, and then fell in the following year.

Exports By Country

The United States (1.2M tons) and Japan (1M tons) represented roughly 52% of total exports in 2022. Belgium (437K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 10% share, followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (9.6%) and Norway (8%). South Korea (150K tons), the Netherlands (146K tons), France (131K tons), China (120K tons), Indonesia (115K tons), Germany (107K tons) and Thailand (99K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +170.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.3B), Japan ($897M) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($410M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 64% share of global exports. Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, France, South Korea, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +146.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average vinyl chloride export price amounted to $936 per ton, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vinyl chloride export price increased by +52.2% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 51% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,429 per ton), while Norway ($647 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+9.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform