Wheat Market

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the global wheat market, forecasting an upward consumption trend with a projected CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.6% in value from 2022 to 2030. It covers various aspects such as consumption patterns, market performance, production levels, imports, and exports of wheat worldwide. Key highlights include the countries with the highest consumption, production, imports, and exports of wheat in 2022, as well as notable growth rates in different regions. The analysis also includes information on average yield, harvested area, import and export prices, and trends observed in the global wheat market over the period from 2012 to 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wheat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 890M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $340.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Wheat

Global wheat consumption totaled 793M tons in 2022, picking up by 4.6% against 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global wheat market size was estimated at $256.6B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (148M tons), India (101M tons) and Russia (87M tons), together accounting for 42% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($50.3B), India ($27.6B) and Russia ($22.4B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 39% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +10.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2022 were Russia (602 kg per person), Canada (410 kg per person) and Turkey (330 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Wheat

Global wheat production rose modestly to 808M tons in 2022, picking up by 4.5% compared with the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 5.4% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the harvested area and a slight increase in yield figures.

In value terms, wheat production dropped rapidly to $241.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 44%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $284.4B, and then fell markedly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (138M tons), India (108M tons) and Russia (104M tons), together accounting for 43% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of wheat expanded markedly to 3.7 tons per ha, increasing by 5.3% against 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the yield reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 219M ha of wheat were harvested worldwide; therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. Overall, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 2.2%. The global harvested area peaked at 223M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Wheat

In 2022, global wheat imports dropped slightly to 171M tons, which is down by -4.1% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 184M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports surged to $70.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +72.3% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China (9.9M tons), Indonesia (9.7M tons), Turkey (8.9M tons), Algeria (6.9M tons), Italy (6.9M tons), the Philippines (6.8M tons), Morocco (6M tons), Egypt (5.7M tons), Brazil (5.7M tons), Japan (5.3M tons), Spain (5M tons) and South Korea (4.4M tons) represented roughly 47% of total imports in 2022. Bangladesh (4.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +20.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($3.8B), China ($3.8B) and Turkey ($3.4B), with a combined 16% share of global imports. Indonesia, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Morocco, Japan, Brazil, Spain, South Korea and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +19.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average wheat import price stood at $409 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat import price increased by +78.8% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 27%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($665 per ton), while Indonesia ($339 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Egypt (+5.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Wheat

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in overseas shipments of wheat, when their volume decreased by -3.9% to 186M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 194M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, wheat exports skyrocketed to $66.9B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +75.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Australia (29M tons), the United States (21M tons), France (20M tons), Canada (19M tons), Russia (18M tons), Argentina (13M tons) and Ukraine (11M tons) represented roughly 70% of total exports in 2022. India (6.8M tons), Kazakhstan (6.3M tons), Germany (6.2M tons), Romania (5.7M tons), Bulgaria (4.1M tons) and Poland (3.6M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +13.1%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($10B), the United States ($8.4B) and Canada ($7.9B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 39% of global exports. France, Russia, Argentina, Ukraine, Germany, India, Romania, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 48%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +16.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average wheat export price stood at $359 per ton in 2022, picking up by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat export price increased by +75.2% against 2016 indices. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($428 per ton), while Ukraine ($239 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform