Bauxite Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global bauxite market, highlighting trends in consumption patterns, production volumes, import and export statistics. It forecasts market performance with an expected CAGR of +3.6% in volume and +5.7% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 506M tons and $42B respectively by the end of 2030. China leads in consumption and import of bauxite, while Guinea is the main exporting country. The article also covers per capita consumption, production trends, and average prices across different countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for bauxite worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 506M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $42B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Bauxite

In 2022, consumption of bauxite decreased by -2.1% to 380M tons for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 388M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

The global bauxite market revenue fell modestly to $26.9B in 2022, declining by -2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $27.6B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of bauxite consumption was China (187M tons), accounting for 49% of total volume. Moreover, bauxite consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Australia (76M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (31M tons), with an 8.2% share.

In China, bauxite consumption increased at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Australia (+1.7% per year) and Brazil (+1.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($11.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($2.1B). It was followed by Brazil.

In China, the bauxite market expanded at an average annual rate of +8.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (+2.1% per year) and Brazil (+2.5% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of bauxite per capita consumption was registered in Australia (2,914 kg per person), followed by Brazil (145 kg per person), China (132 kg per person) and Russia (43 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of bauxite was estimated at 48 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the bauxite per capita consumption in Australia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+0.3% per year) and China (+7.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Bauxite

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was decline in production of bauxite, when its volume decreased by -2.3% to 382M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 8.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 391M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, bauxite production declined modestly to $33.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +5.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the production volume increased by 104%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $34.8B in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Australia (112M tons), Guinea (87M tons) and China (62M tons), with a combined 68% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Guinea (with a CAGR of +17.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Bauxite

In 2022, the amount of bauxite imported worldwide rose notably to 152M tons, increasing by 8.8% against 2021. Overall, imports recorded a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 164%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, bauxite imports skyrocketed to $9.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports posted a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when imports increased by 43% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

China prevails in imports structure, resulting at 125M tons, which was approx. 83% of total imports in 2022. Ireland (4.4M tons), Spain (4.1M tons), the United States (3.8M tons), Canada (3.6M tons), India (3.5M tons) and Germany (2.7M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +12.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+46.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +46.5% from 2012-2022. Spain, Ireland, Canada and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-10.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+31 p.p.) and India (+2.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany, Spain, Canada, Ireland and the United States saw its share reduced by -1.9%, -2.2%, -2.5%, -2.6% and -13.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, China ($7.4B) constitutes the largest market for imported bauxite worldwide, comprising 80% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($290M), with a 3.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Spain, with a 2.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +14.6%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: India (+24.9% per year) and Spain (+2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average bauxite import price stood at $61 per ton in 2022, growing by 20% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a modest expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 99%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $107 per ton. From 2017 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($84 per ton), while Canada ($40 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+2.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Bauxite

In 2022, the amount of bauxite exported worldwide amounted to 154M tons, surging by 8% against the previous year's figure. In general, exports saw a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 38%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, bauxite exports skyrocketed to $8.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Guinea represented the main exporting country with an export of around 86M tons, which reached 56% of total exports. Australia (36M tons) took a 23% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Indonesia (12%). The following exporters - Brazil (4.2M tons) and Jamaica (2.5M tons) - together made up 4.3% of total exports.

Guinea was also the fastest-growing in terms of the bauxite exports, with a CAGR of +16.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Australia (+11.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Indonesia (-3.9%), Brazil (-4.8%) and Jamaica (-6.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Guinea (+32 p.p.) and Australia (+8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Jamaica (-4.6 p.p.), Brazil (-6.3 p.p.) and Indonesia (-24.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Guinea ($5.5B) remains the largest bauxite supplier worldwide, comprising 66% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($1.2B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 9.7% share.

In Guinea, bauxite exports expanded at an average annual rate of +20.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (-1.0% per year) and Australia (+10.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average bauxite export price stood at $53 per ton in 2022, rising by 22% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Guinea ($63 per ton), while Australia ($22 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform