Durum Wheat Market

The global durum wheat market is projected to see an increase in consumption and value over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.2% and +4.6% respectively. Market performance has been relatively stable, with fluctuations observed in consumption, production, imports, and exports. Countries like China, India, and Russia have shown significant increases in both consumption and production, with notable growth rates recorded over the past decade. Global imports and exports are also analyzed, with countries like Canada, Russia, and Argentina leading in exports. Price trends for imports and exports show significant fluctuations, with varying prices among major exporting and importing countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for durum wheat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 911M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $675.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Durum Wheat

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of durum wheat, which increased by 4.2% to 829M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

The global durum wheat market revenue fell sharply to $472.1B in 2022, dropping by -19.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $632.8B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (140M tons), India (108M tons) and Russia (103M tons), together accounting for 42% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($67B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($31B). It was followed by Russia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +2.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+1.4% per year) and Russia (+9.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of durum wheat per capita consumption in 2022 were Australia (1,374 kg per person), Canada (800 kg per person) and Russia (716 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Durum Wheat

In 2022, approx. 808M tons of durum wheat were produced worldwide; surging by 4.6% on the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 5.5% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and slight growth in yield figures.

In value terms, durum wheat production shrank to $272.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +7.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 88% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $472.8B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (138M tons), India (108M tons) and Russia (104M tons), together comprising 43% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average durum wheat yield rose remarkably to 3.7 tons per ha in 2022, increasing by 5.4% compared with 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the yield reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of durum wheat shrank modestly to 219M ha, remaining stable against 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 2.2%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to durum wheat production reached the maximum at 223M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Durum Wheat

In 2022, global imports of durum wheat reduced sharply to 33M tons, waning by -15.3% on 2021. Overall, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 37%. Global imports peaked at 43M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, durum wheat imports stood at $16.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +49.1% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Egypt (9.7M tons) represented the main importer of durum wheat, mixing up 29% of total imports. It was distantly followed by China (2.6M tons), Yemen (1.9M tons), Italy (1.9M tons) and Pakistan (1.7M tons), together making up a 24% share of total imports. The following importers - Ethiopia (1,126K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (1,088K tons), Ecuador (1,034K tons), Algeria (911K tons), Jordan (900K tons), Morocco (675K tons), Tunisia (595K tons) and Angola (593K tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to durum wheat imports into Egypt stood at +1.7%. At the same time, Angola (+58.8%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+41.9%), Pakistan (+17.9%), China (+10.0%), Ecuador (+9.2%), Ethiopia (+8.2%), Tunisia (+5.3%) and Italy (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Angola emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +58.8% from 2012-2022. Jordan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Morocco (-1.8%), Yemen (-4.7%) and Algeria (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Egypt, Pakistan, China, Taiwan (Chinese), Ethiopia, Ecuador and Angola increased by +5.3, +5, +4.9, +3.2, +1.9, +1.9 and +1.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Egypt ($3.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported durum wheat worldwide, comprising 22% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($1.1B), with a 6.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 6% share.

In Egypt, durum wheat imports increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: China (+11.5% per year) and Italy (+4.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average durum wheat import price amounted to $486 per ton, growing by 26% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, durum wheat import price increased by +84.8% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the average import price increased by 30%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Ethiopia ($623 per ton), while Yemen ($271 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ethiopia (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Durum Wheat

In 2022, global durum wheat exports shrank rapidly to 12M tons, declining by -24.5% on 2021. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a noticeable shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 41% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 26M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, durum wheat exports skyrocketed to $7.8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 39%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Canada represented the main exporter of durum wheat in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 3.4M tons, which was near 28% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Russia (1,266K tons), France (1,202K tons), Argentina (951K tons), the Czech Republic (841K tons), Poland (690K tons) and Slovakia (677K tons), together generating a 46% share of total exports. Greece (387K tons), the United States (350K tons), Italy (308K tons), Spain (306K tons), Kazakhstan (193K tons) and Australia (185K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Canada decreased at an average annual rate of -1.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Poland (+17.6%), Slovakia (+17.5%), the Czech Republic (+5.1%), Italy (+4.3%), Argentina (+4.1%), Spain (+3.5%) and Greece (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +17.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, France (-2.0%), Australia (-2.5%), the United States (-4.2%), Kazakhstan (-4.9%) and Russia (-14.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Canada (+7.1 p.p.), Poland (+4.9 p.p.), Slovakia (+4.8 p.p.), Argentina (+4.4 p.p.), the Czech Republic (+4.1 p.p.) and France (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-22.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($2.5B), Canada ($1.7B) and Argentina ($679M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 63% share of global exports. France, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Italy, Greece, Spain, the United States, Australia and Kazakhstan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +20.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average durum wheat export price amounted to $637 per ton, jumping by 78% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a prominent expansion. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($1,974 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($337 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+18.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform