Global Shelled Walnuts Market to Witness 3.7% CAGR Growth from 2023 to 2030, Reaching $29.2B in Value

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Shelled Walnuts - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global market for shelled walnuts is set to experience steady growth driven by rising demand. By 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 4.9M tons, with a market value of $29.2B. This growth trend highlights the continued popularity and importance of walnuts in the global market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for shelled walnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Shelled Walnuts

In 2023, consumption of shelled walnuts decreased by -4.2% to 3.8M tons for the first time since 2012, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, posted a resilient expansion. Global consumption peaked at 3.9M tons in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

The global shelled walnut market revenue reduced to $19.7B in 2023, which is down by -9.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $21.7B in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of shelled walnut consumption was China (1.2M tons), comprising approx. 32% of total volume. Moreover, shelled walnut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (528K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Iran (370K tons), with a 9.8% share.

In China, shelled walnut consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+18.1% per year) and Iran (+11.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest shelled walnut markets worldwide were China ($5.6B), the United States ($3B) and Turkey ($2.1B), with a combined 55% share of the global market. Iran, Mexico, Chile, Burkina Faso, Greece and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Among the main consuming countries, Burkina Faso, with a CAGR of +305.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of shelled walnut per capita consumption in 2023 were Greece (6.3 kg per person), Chile (6.2 kg per person) and Burkina Faso (5.8 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Burkina Faso (with a CAGR of +322.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Shelled Walnuts

After ten years of growth, production of shelled walnuts decreased by -4.4% to 3.8M tons in 2023. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a remarkable increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 42%. Global production peaked at 4M tons in 2022, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, shelled walnut production reduced to $18.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a strong increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 24%. Global production peaked at $20.8B in 2022, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (1.2M tons), the United States (674K tons) and Iran (370K tons), with a combined 61% share of global production. Turkey, Chile, Mexico, Burkina Faso, Ukraine and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +25.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Shelled Walnuts

For the fifth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in supplies from abroad of shelled walnuts, which increased by 2.5% to 335K tons in 2023. In general, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +93.3% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, shelled walnut imports dropped remarkably to $1.6B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $1.9B in 2022, and then fell sharply in the following year.

Imports By Country

Germany (41K tons), Kyrgyzstan (27K tons), Spain (19K tons), Japan (18K tons), Turkey (17K tons), South Korea (16K tons), the Netherlands (15K tons), the United Arab Emirates (11K tons), the UK (11K tons), Italy (10K tons), Canada (9.4K tons) and France (9.2K tons) represented roughly 61% of total imports in 2023. Russia (9.1K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Kyrgyzstan (with a CAGR of +127.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($200M), Spain ($115M) and Kyrgyzstan ($106M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 26% of global imports.

Kyrgyzstan, with a CAGR of +157.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average shelled walnut import price amounted to $4,765 per ton, dropping by -18.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a deep reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 15%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $9,393 per ton. From 2015 to 2023, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($6,038 per ton), while Turkey ($2,759 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kyrgyzstan (+13.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Shelled Walnuts

After four years of growth, shipments abroad of shelled walnuts decreased by -0.7% to 327K tons in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +90.0% against 2013 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 18%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 329K tons in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

In value terms, shelled walnut exports fell markedly to $1.4B in 2023. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 25%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $1.8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The United States was the major exporter of shelled walnuts in the world, with the volume of exports recording 146K tons, which was near 45% of total exports in 2023. It was distantly followed by China (39K tons), Chile (38K tons), Ukraine (22K tons) and Germany (17K tons), together creating a 35% share of total exports. Kyrgyzstan (10K tons) and the Netherlands (7.6K tons) took a little share of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, China (+25.7%), Germany (+14.7%), the Netherlands (+12.2%), Chile (+10.4%) and Kyrgyzstan (+6.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.7% from 2013-2023. Ukraine experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2013 to 2023, the share of China, Chile and Germany increased by +9.7, +3.4 and +2.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($625M) remains the largest shelled walnut supplier worldwide, comprising 44% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Chile ($187M), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with an 8.7% share.

In the United States, shelled walnut exports shrank by an average annual rate of -1.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Chile (+1.3% per year) and Germany (+9.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average shelled walnut export price stood at $4,329 per ton in 2023, falling by -20% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a abrupt slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 16% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $8,944 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($7,348 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($1,238 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+0.2%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform